luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 2 2020 · September 20, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Panthers at Buccaneers, Week 2 2020: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers beat the Panthers 31–17, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 71% favorites.

Final

Carolina Panthers 17
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31

September 20, 2020 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: Buccaneers −7.5

Luck index +27 Buccaneers lucky · −27 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 3, Buccaneers win 7.

  1. 1 CAR 26 TB 10
  2. 2 CAR 27 TB 20
  3. 3 CAR 27 TB 24
  4. 4 CAR 17 TB 19
  5. 5 CAR 14 TB 19
  6. 6 CAR 7 TB 14
  7. 7 CAR 20 TB 31
  8. 8 CAR 6 TB 21
  9. 9 CAR 16 TB 37
  10. 10 CAR 3 TB 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 27% of them, Buccaneers 73%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 17+4.3%
Panthers by 9–167.8%
Panthers by 1–814.5%
Level after regulation3.5%
Buccaneers by 1–823.5%
Buccaneers by 9–1620.7%
Buccaneers by 17+25.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.3 points to the Buccaneers: the final margin was Buccaneers by 14, without the luck Buccaneers by 10.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Succop, 33 yds made · 91% expected
  • J. Slye, 23 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Panthers 9 for 77 yards, Buccaneers 5 for 37 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:04 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Buccaneers, 10 yards +3% CAR +0.9 pts
Q1 6:15 Unnecessary Roughness on the Panthers (Derrick Brown), 7 yards +3% TB +1.0 pts
Q2 8:22 Illegal Shift on the Panthers, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +3% TB +1.4 pts
Q2 7:55 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Buccaneers (Ndamukong Suh), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CAR +0.6 pts
Q2 2:00 False Start on the Panthers (D.J. Moore), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TB +0.5 pts
Q3 13:25 False Start on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TB +0.5 pts
Q3 8:48 Defensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Carlton Davis), 7 yards +1% CAR +1.2 pts
Q3 7:29 Defensive Pass Interference on the Panthers (Donte Jackson), 23 yards +2% TB +2.2 pts
Q3 5:52 Illegal Use of Hands on the Panthers (Derrick Brown), 5 yards +2% TB +2.2 pts
Q3 5:16 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards +1% CAR +1.6 pts
Q3 4:52 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Panthers (Trenton Cannon), 7 yards +1% TB +0.5 pts
Q4 14:20 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Buccaneers (Rakeem Nunez-Roches), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CAR +0.5 pts
Q4 12:53 Defensive Pass Interference on the Panthers (Tahir Whitehead), 10 yards +4% TB +1.0 pts
Q4 2:57 Intentional Grounding on the Panthers (Teddy Bridgewater), 10 yards +1% TB +0.9 pts

Panthers penalties, every game · Buccaneers penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Buccaneers’ chance of winning

As low as 38% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Buccaneers were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:02 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +5% CAR TB: Punt
2 Q1 9:18 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +5% TB TB: Touchdown
3 Q1 6:15 Unnecessary Roughness on the Panthers (Derrick Brown), 7 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 49 snaps before, position avg 1 per 262 +3% TB TB: Touchdown
4 Q1 4:57 The Panthers fumbled and the Buccaneers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% TB CAR: Punt
5 Q2 8:53 The Panthers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +3% CAR CAR: Turnover on downs
6 Q4 13:30 The Panthers converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +5% CAR CAR: Touchdown
7 Q4 12:53 Defensive Pass Interference on the Panthers (Tahir Whitehead), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 1064 snaps before, position avg 1 per 395 +4% TB TB: Punt
8 Q4 12:05 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +4% CAR TB: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Chris Godwin (TB WR), out · 1.0 pts
  • Dennis Daley (CAR G), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 2% · Buccaneers 98%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 14
Luck in points
3.3 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Buccaneers by 10.7
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 27% · Buccaneers 73% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2020 games · Panthers · Buccaneers

More from Week 2 2020