luckadjusted

Week 2 2020 · September 20, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Rams at Eagles, Week 2 2020: who deserved to win?

The Rams beat the Eagles 37–19, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Rams win 9 of 10.

An off day for the Eagles: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Rams they would win 46% of the time; with this day’s form, 10%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Eagles were 56% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 8:47 left): the Eagles converted 3rd & 6, worth 9 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Final

Los Angeles Rams 37
Philadelphia Eagles 19

September 20, 2020 · Lincoln Financial Field · Closing line: Eagles −2

Luck index +10 Rams about even · −10 Eagles

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Rams win 9, Eagles win 1.

  1. 1 LA 45 PHI 13
  2. 2 LA 45 PHI 21
  3. 3 LA 34 PHI 13
  4. 4 LA 33 PHI 16
  5. 5 LA 34 PHI 20
  6. 6 LA 28 PHI 17
  7. 7 LA 42 PHI 34
  8. 8 LA 20 PHI 14
  9. 9 LA 20 PHI 17
  10. 10 LA 22 PHI 26

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Eagles

Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Rams they would win 46% of the time; with this day’s form, 10%.

36 points apart for the Eagles: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Rams offenseEPA per play gained +0.44 +0.13 better by 0.31
Rams defenseEPA per play allowed +0.07 +0.07 better by 0.01
Eagles offenseEPA per play gained +0.07 +0.07 better by 0.00
Eagles defenseEPA per play allowed +0.44 +0.08 worse by 0.36

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Rams win 90% of them, Eagles 10%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Rams by 18.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Rams by 17+44.1%
Rams by 9–1625.1%
Rams by 1–820.7%
Level after regulation1.0%
Eagles by 1–86.5%
Eagles by 9–161.8%
Eagles by 17+0.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Rams by 18. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Rams by 18.5.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Elliott, 38 yds made · 88% expected
  • S. Sloman, 30 yds made · 95% expected
  • J. Elliott, 33 yds made · 93% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Eagles’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Eagles were ahead in it, below while the Rams were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:43 The Eagles fumbled and the Rams recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% LA PHI: Field goal
2 Q1 12:17 The Rams converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected +6% LA LA: Touchdown
3 Q1 5:23 The Rams converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected +5% LA LA: Touchdown
4 Q2 1:01 The Rams fumbled and the Eagles recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% PHI LA: End of half
5 Q3 8:47 The Eagles converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +9% PHI PHI: Turnover
6 Q3 6:51 The Rams converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +6% LA LA: Field goal
7 Q3 5:06 The Rams converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +5% LA LA: Field goal
8 Q4 12:17 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +6% LA PHI: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Alshon Jeffery (PHI WR), out · 0.6 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Rams 100% · Eagles 0%

Final margin
Rams by 18
Luck in points
0.5 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Rams by 18.5
Replay with same day's form
Rams 90% · Eagles 10% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2020 games · Rams · Eagles

More from Week 2 2020