luckadjusted

Week 2 2020 · September 20, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Patriots at Seahawks, Week 2 2020: who deserved to win?

The Seahawks beat the Patriots 35–30, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Seahawks win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 3.1 points to the Seahawks.

Before kickoff the Seahawks were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 13:48 left): Return touchdown by the Patriots, worth 25 points of win probability to the Patriots.

Final

New England Patriots 30
Seattle Seahawks 35

September 20, 2020 · CenturyLink Field · Closing line: Seahawks −4

Luck index +44 Seahawks lucky · −44 Patriots

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Patriots win 4, Seahawks win 6.

  1. 1 NE 31 SEA 13
  2. 2 NE 17 SEA 6
  3. 3 NE 34 SEA 27
  4. 4 NE 30 SEA 28
  5. 5 NE 36 SEA 38
  6. 6 NE 16 SEA 20
  7. 7 NE 26 SEA 34
  8. 8 NE 30 SEA 41
  9. 9 NE 21 SEA 38
  10. 10 NE 13 SEA 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Patriots win 44% of them, Seahawks 56%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Patriots by 17+9.2%
Patriots by 9–1613.0%
Patriots by 1–821.4%
Level after regulation6.1%
Seahawks by 1–823.5%
Seahawks by 9–1615.0%
Seahawks by 17+11.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Seahawks by 5. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Seahawks by 8.6.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • N. Folk, 51 yds missed · 68% expected
  • N. Folk, 25 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Seahawks’ chance of winning

As low as 27% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Seahawks were ahead in it, below while the Patriots were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:48 Return touchdown by the PatriotsSpecial teams +25% NE NE: Opp touchdown
2 Q1 3:26 The Patriots converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +9% NE NE: Touchdown
3 Q2 6:09 The Patriots converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +8% NE NE: Missed field goal
4 Q2 3:49 N. Folk missed 51-yard field goalKicks · 68% expected for him, 2 of 5 from 45+ before +8% SEA NE: End of half
5 Q2 1:43 Defensive Holding on the Patriots, 5 yardsJudgment calls +7% SEA SEA: Punt
6 Q3 14:51 The Patriots converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +8% NE NE: Field goal
7 Q4 11:31 The Patriots converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +8% NE NE: Punt
8 Q4 9:39 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +8% SEA NE: Punt

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Patriots 3% · Seahawks 97%

Final margin
Seahawks by 5
Luck in points
3.6 for the Patriots
Luck-adjusted margin
Seahawks by 8.6
Replay with same day's form
Patriots 44% · Seahawks 56% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2020 games · Patriots · Seahawks

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