luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 2 2020 · September 20, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

49ers at Jets, Week 2 2020: who deserved to win?

The 49ers beat the Jets 31–13, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10.

Before kickoff the 49ers were 70% favorites.

Final

San Francisco 49ers 31
New York Jets 13

September 20, 2020 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: 49ers −7

Luck index +38 49ers lucky · −38 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. 49ers win 6, Jets win 4.

  1. 1 SF 40 NYJ 15
  2. 2 SF 19 NYJ 3
  3. 3 SF 28 NYJ 16
  4. 4 SF 24 NYJ 16
  5. 5 SF 20 NYJ 16
  6. 6 SF 19 NYJ 17
  7. 7 SF 10 NYJ 13
  8. 8 SF 10 NYJ 16
  9. 9 SF 9 NYJ 20
  10. 10 SF 9 NYJ 28

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

49ers win 62% of them, Jets 38%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: 49ers by 18.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
49ers by 17+15.0%
49ers by 9–1617.1%
49ers by 1–826.8%
Level after regulation3.3%
Jets by 1–820.0%
Jets by 9–1611.9%
Jets by 17+5.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +8.1 points to the 49ers: the final margin was 49ers by 18, without the luck 49ers by 9.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • S. Ficken, 41 yds made · 86% expected
  • R. Gould, 46 yds made · 74% expected
  • S. Ficken, 25 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: 49ers 5 for 59 yards, Jets 5 for 65 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 2:55 Offensive Holding on the 49ers, 10 yards +1% NYJ +0.9 pts
Q2 1:05 Roughing the Passer on the Jets (Henry Anderson), 15 yards +4% SF +1.9 pts
Q3 13:04 Offensive Holding on the 49ers (Ross Dwelley), 10 yards +1% NYJ +1.1 pts
Q3 11:14 False Start on the 49ers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NYJ +0.3 pts
Q3 7:45 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards +1% SF +0.9 pts
Q4 10:47 Roughing the Passer on the Jets, 15 yards 0% SF +1.8 pts
Q4 9:45 Defensive Pass Interference on the 49ers, 20 yards 0% NYJ +1.9 pts
Q4 6:24 Offensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Ryan Griffin), 10 yards, wiping out the play +2% SF +3.3 pts
Q4 3:00 Illegal Crackback on the Jets (Chris Hogan), 15 yards 0% SF +1.4 pts
Q4 2:13 Defensive Pass Interference on the 49ers (Dontae Johnson), 14 yards 0% NYJ +1.8 pts

49ers penalties, every game · Jets penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Jets’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 58%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jets were ahead in it, below while the 49ers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:58 The Jets converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +4% NYJ NYJ: Punt
2 Q1 13:03 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +5% SF NYJ: Punt
3 Q1 7:30 The Jets converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +5% NYJ NYJ: Field goal
4 Q2 13:35 The 49ers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +5% SF SF: Touchdown
5 Q2 10:01 The 49ers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +6% SF SF: Touchdown
6 Q2 4:25 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +4% SF NYJ: Turnover on downs
7 Q2 3:45 The Jets were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +6% SF NYJ: End of half
8 Q2 1:05 Roughing the Passer on the Jets (Henry Anderson), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 555 snaps before, position avg 1 per 390 +4% SF SF: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jamison Crowder (NYJ WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Le'Veon Bell (NYJ RB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Nate Hairston (NYJ CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Richard Sherman (SF CB), out (IR) · 1.6 pts
  • George Kittle (SF TE), out · 1.2 pts
  • Deebo Samuel (SF WR), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Dee Ford (SF LB), out · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

49ers 93% · Jets 7%

Final margin
49ers by 18
Luck in points
8.1 for the 49ers
Luck-adjusted margin
49ers by 9.9
Replay with same day's form
49ers 62% · Jets 38% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2020 games · 49ers · Jets

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