2020 season · final

New York Jets, 2020: game by game

The Jets went 2–14 in 2020; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 3.3 wins. Luck cost them 1.3: the 10th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 2–4.

Every game

How often the Jets win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Bills	L 17–27	19%	−19
Week 2	vs 49ers	L 13–31	38%	−38
Week 3	@ Colts	L 7–36	9%	−9
Week 4	vs Broncos	L 28–37	12%	−12
Week 5	vs Cardinals	L 10–30	2%	−2
Week 6	@ Dolphins	L 0–24	2%	−2
Week 7	vs Bills	L 10–18	3%	−3
Week 8	@ Chiefs	L 9–35	1%	−1
Week 9	vs Patriots	L 27–30	40%	−40
Week 11	@ Chargers	L 28–34	25%	−25
Week 12	vs Dolphins	L 3–20	35%	−35
Week 13	vs Raiders	L 28–31	27%	−27
Week 14	@ Seahawks	L 3–40	1%	−1
Week 15	@ Rams	W 23–20	19%	+81
Week 16	vs Browns	W 23–16	57%	+43
Week 17	@ Patriots	L 14–28	43%	−43

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 −19 @ BUF

Wk 2 −38 vs SF

Wk 3 −9 @ IND

Wk 4 −12 vs DEN

Wk 5 −2 vs ARI

Wk 6 −2 @ MIA

Wk 7 −3 vs BUF

Wk 8 −1 @ KC

Wk 9 −40 vs NE

Wk 11 −25 @ LAC

Wk 12 −35 vs MIA

Wk 13 −27 vs LV

Wk 14 −1 @ SEA

Wk 15 +81 @ LA

Wk 16 +43 vs CLE

Wk 17 −43 @ NE

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Jets’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Rest	+0.04	+1.6
Judgment calls	−0.04	−4.5
Kicks	−0.12	−18.4
3rd & 4th downs	−0.29	−11.9