luckadjusted

Week 6 2020 · October 18, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Jets at Dolphins, Week 6 2020: who deserved to win?

The Dolphins beat the Jets 24–0, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Dolphins win 10 of 10. The Jets had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 1.6 points to the Jets.

Before kickoff the Dolphins were 76% favorites.

Final

New York Jets 0
Miami Dolphins 24

October 18, 2020 · Hard Rock Stadium · Closing line: Dolphins −9.5

Luck index +2 Dolphins about even · −2 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jets win 0, Dolphins win 10.

  1. 1 NYJ 15 MIA 19
  2. 2 NYJ 9 MIA 19
  3. 3 NYJ 13 MIA 26
  4. 4 NYJ 16 MIA 31
  5. 5 NYJ 9 MIA 27
  6. 6 NYJ 20 MIA 41
  7. 7 NYJ 21 MIA 45
  8. 8 NYJ 10 MIA 37
  9. 9 NYJ 13 MIA 45
  10. 10 NYJ 7 MIA 48

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jets win 2% of them, Dolphins 98%. The line is what actually happened: Dolphins by 24.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jets by 17+0.0%
Jets by 9–160.3%
Jets by 1–81.0%
Level after regulation0.4%
Dolphins by 1–83.1%
Dolphins by 9–169.0%
Dolphins by 17+86.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Dolphins by 24. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Dolphins by 14.9.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Sanders, 24 yds made · 98% expected
  • S. Ficken, 55 yds missed · 54% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Dolphins’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Dolphins were ahead in it, below while the Jets were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:18 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +4% MIA NYJ: Punt
2 Q1 11:57 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +3% MIA NYJ: Punt
3 Q1 3:24 Illegal Contact on the Dolphins (Andrew Van Ginkel), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 471 snaps before, position avg 1 per 395 +4% NYJ NYJ: Punt
4 Q1 0:51 Offensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Ryan Griffin), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 5 flags in 1015 snaps before, position avg 1 per 276 +7% MIA MIA: Touchdown
5 Q1 0:08 Face Mask on the Jets, 15 yardsJudgment calls +2% MIA MIA: Touchdown
6 Q2 13:00 Face Mask on the Jets (Avery Williamson), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 196 snaps before, position avg 1 per 395 +2% MIA MIA: Touchdown
7 Q2 9:28 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +2% MIA NYJ: Punt
8 Q2 6:25 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +4% MIA NYJ: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Austin Jackson (MIA T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Kyle Van Noy (MIA LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Davon Godchaux (MIA DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Vince Biegel (MIA LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Chris Hogan (NYJ WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Mekhi Becton (NYJ T), out · 0.5 pts
  • Nathan Shepherd (NYJ DE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Sam Darnold (NYJ QB), out, replaced by j.flacco · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jets 0% · Dolphins 100%

Final margin
Dolphins by 24
Luck in points
9.0 for the Dolphins
Luck-adjusted margin
Dolphins by 15.0
Replay with same day's form
Jets 2% · Dolphins 98% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2020 games · Jets · Dolphins

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