luckadjusted

Week 6 2020 · October 18, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Packers at Buccaneers, Week 6 2020: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers beat the Packers 38–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Buccaneers win 8 of 10. The Packers had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 1.6 points to the Packers.

Before kickoff the Packers were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 12:50 left): the Packers were stopped on 3rd & 10, worth 27 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Final

Green Bay Packers 10
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38

October 18, 2020 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: Packers −3

Luck index +17 Buccaneers about even · −17 Packers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Packers win 2, Buccaneers win 8.

  1. 1 GB 23 TB 9
  2. 2 GB 23 TB 20
  3. 3 GB 21 TB 23
  4. 4 GB 19 TB 23
  5. 5 GB 30 TB 37
  6. 6 GB 17 TB 27
  7. 7 GB 14 TB 28
  8. 8 GB 31 TB 48
  9. 9 GB 16 TB 38
  10. 10 GB 3 TB 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Packers win 17% of them, Buccaneers 83%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 28.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Packers by 17+1.8%
Packers by 9–164.6%
Packers by 1–89.8%
Level after regulation1.2%
Buccaneers by 1–825.2%
Buccaneers by 9–1622.0%
Buccaneers by 17+35.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Buccaneers by 28. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Buccaneers by 20.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Crosby, 39 yds made · 87% expected
  • R. Succop, 50 yds made · 65% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Buccaneers’ chance of winning

As low as 25% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Buccaneers were ahead in it, below while the Packers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:14 The Packers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +7% GB GB: Field goal
2 Q1 10:38 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +5% TB GB: Field goal
3 Q1 6:51 The Packers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +6% GB GB: Touchdown
4 Q1 3:40 Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +5% TB TB: Punt
5 Q1 1:31 The Packers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +5% GB GB: Touchdown
6 Q2 12:50 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedReturn touchdown by the BuccaneersSpecial teams +27% TB GB: Turnover
7 Q2 11:17 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +22% TB GB: Punt
8 Q2 4:40 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +4% TB TB: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Vita Vea (TB DL), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Vita Vea (TB DT), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Vita Vea (TB NT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • O.J. Howard (TB TE), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Allen Lazard (GB WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Kevin King (GB CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Christian Kirksey (GB LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Packers 0% · Buccaneers 100%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 28
Luck in points
7.8 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Buccaneers by 20.2
Replay with same day's form
Packers 17% · Buccaneers 83% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2020 games · Packers · Buccaneers

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