luckadjusted

Week 6 2020 · October 18, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Bears at Panthers, Week 6 2020: who deserved to win?

The Bears beat the Panthers 23–16, but the Panthers played well enough to win it: they take 8 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 4.1 points to the Bears.

Before kickoff the Panthers were 56% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 10:06 left): Defensive Pass Interference on the Bears (Kyle Fuller), 11 yards, wiping out the play, worth 14 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Final

Chicago Bears 23
Carolina Panthers 16

October 18, 2020 · Bank of America Stadium · Closing line: Panthers −2

Luck index +79 Bears very lucky · −79 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bears win 2, Panthers win 8.

  1. 1 CHI 34 CAR 21
  2. 2 CHI 19 CAR 16
  3. 3 CHI 31 CAR 33
  4. 4 CHI 17 CAR 23
  5. 5 CHI 23 CAR 31
  6. 6 CHI 18 CAR 29
  7. 7 CHI 17 CAR 30
  8. 8 CHI 22 CAR 38
  9. 9 CHI 16 CAR 37
  10. 10 CHI 16 CAR 44

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bears win 21% of them, Panthers 79%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bears by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bears by 17+2.0%
Bears by 9–165.6%
Bears by 1–812.2%
Level after regulation2.1%
Panthers by 1–826.3%
Panthers by 9–1620.7%
Panthers by 17+31.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Bears by 7. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Panthers by 0.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Slye, 21 yds made · 99% expected
  • C. Santos, 31 yds made · 95% expected
  • J. Slye, 20 yds made · 99% expected
  • C. Santos, 55 yds made · 59% expected
  • J. Slye, 54 yds missed · 65% expected
  • C. Santos, 31 yds made · 95% expected
  • J. Slye, 48 yds made · 75% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Panthers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 55%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Panthers were ahead in it, below while the Bears were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:25 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 193rd & 4th downs · 16% expected +10% CHI CAR: Field goal
2 Q1 11:46 The Bears converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 21% expectedDelay of Game on the Bears, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +9% CHI CHI: Touchdown
3 Q2 3:00 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Bears (Akiem Hicks), 3 yardsPre-snap flags · 5 flags in 467 snaps before, position avg 1 per 262 +9% CAR CAR: Field goal
4 Q3 14:13 The Bears converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expectedNeutral Zone Infraction on the Panthers, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +8% CHI CHI: Punt
5 Q3 10:06 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bears (Kyle Fuller), 11 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 12 flags in 1529 snaps before, position avg 1 per 237 +14% CAR CAR: Missed field goal
6 Q3 6:19 J. Slye missed 54-yard field goalKicks · 65% expected for him, 15 of 20 from 45+ before +11% CHI CAR: Touchdown
7 Q4 13:21 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bears (Jaylon Johnson), 33 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 360 snaps before, position avg 1 per 237 +9% CAR CAR: Touchdown
8 Q4 2:00 The Panthers were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 57% expected +11% CHI CAR: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Christian McCaffrey (CAR RB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Curtis Samuel (CAR WR), out · 0.5 pts
  • Kawann Short (CAR DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Dennis Daley (CAR G), out · 0.3 pts
  • James Daniels (CHI OL), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • James Daniels (CHI C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bears 57% · Panthers 43%

Final margin
Bears by 7
Luck in points
7.2 for the Bears
Luck-adjusted margin
Panthers by 0.2
Replay with same day's form
Bears 21% · Panthers 79% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2020 games · Bears · Panthers

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