luckadjusted

Week 6 2020 · October 18, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Texans at Titans, Week 6 2020: who deserved to win?

The Titans beat the Texans 42–36, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Titans win 6 of 10.

Before kickoff the Titans were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 6:08 left): the Titans were stopped on 3rd & 10, worth 34 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final (OT)

Houston Texans 36
Tennessee Titans 42

October 18, 2020 · Nissan Stadium · Closing line: Titans −4

Luck index +45 Titans lucky · −45 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texans win 4, Titans win 6.

  1. 1 HOU 55 TEN 31
  2. 2 HOU 47 TEN 34
  3. 3 HOU 41 TEN 34
  4. 4 HOU 45 TEN 43
  5. 5 HOU 29 TEN 31
  6. 6 HOU 26 TEN 30
  7. 7 HOU 27 TEN 35
  8. 8 HOU 22 TEN 34
  9. 9 HOU 23 TEN 40
  10. 10 HOU 24 TEN 52

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texans win 45% of them, Titans 55%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Titans by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texans by 17+8.8%
Texans by 9–1613.0%
Texans by 1–820.5%
Level after regulation2.3%
Titans by 1–824.3%
Titans by 9–1616.2%
Titans by 17+14.9%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Titans by 6. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Titans by 13.9.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Fairbairn, 38 yds made · 88% expected
  • S. Gostkowski, 27 yds blocked · 97% expected
  • S. Gostkowski, 37 yds missed · 89% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Titans’ chance of winning

As low as 7% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Titans were ahead in it, below while the Texans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:53 The Texans converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +8% HOU HOU: Punt
2 Q2 8:59 The Texans converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +10% HOU HOU: Touchdown
3 Q3 6:08 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedThe Titans fumbled and the Texans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +34% HOU TEN: Missed field goal
4 Q4 14:18 S. Gostkowski missed 37-yard field goalKicks · 89% expected for him +18% HOU TEN: Touchdown
5 Q4 10:29 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +9% TEN HOU: Punt
6 Q4 4:37 The Texans converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +9% HOU HOU: Touchdown
7 Q4 1:53 The Texans converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +7% HOU HOU: Touchdown
8 QOT 6:35 The Titans converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +10% TEN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Adoree' Jackson (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Chris Jackson (TEN DB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Gareon Conley (HOU CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Jordan Akins (HOU TE), out · 0.6 pts
  • Benardrick McKinney (HOU LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Benardrick McKinney (HOU ILB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texans 0% · Titans 100%

Final margin
Titans by 6
Luck in points
7.9 for the Texans
Luck-adjusted margin
Titans by 13.9
Replay with same day's form
Texans 45% · Titans 55% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2020 games · Texans · Titans

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