2020 season · final

Houston Texans, 2020: game by game

The Texans went 4–12 in 2020; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 6.7 wins. Luck cost them 2.7: the 3rd-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 2–8.

Every game

How often the Texans win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Chiefs	L 20–34	32%	−32
Week 2	vs Ravens	L 16–33	12%	−12
Week 3	@ Steelers	L 21–28	29%	−29
Week 4	vs Vikings	L 23–31	13%	−13
Week 5	vs Jaguars	W 30–14	92%	+8
Week 6	@ Titans	L 36–42	44%	−44
Week 7	vs Packers	L 20–35	14%	−14
Week 9	@ Jaguars	W 27–25	63%	+37
Week 10	@ Browns	L 7–10	51%	−51
Week 11	vs Patriots	W 27–20	55%	+45
Week 12	@ Lions	W 41–25	88%	+12
Week 13	vs Colts	L 20–26	22%	−22
Week 14	@ Bears	L 7–36	12%	−12
Week 15	@ Colts	L 20–27	15%	−15
Week 16	vs Bengals	L 31–37	64%	−64
Week 17	vs Titans	L 38–41	60%	−60

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 −32 @ KC

Wk 2 −12 vs BAL

Wk 3 −29 @ PIT

Wk 4 −13 vs MIN

Wk 5 +8 vs JAX

Wk 6 −44 @ TEN

Wk 7 −14 vs GB

Wk 9 +37 @ JAX

Wk 10 −51 @ CLE

Wk 11 +45 vs NE

Wk 12 +12 @ DET

Wk 13 −22 vs IND

Wk 14 −12 @ CHI

Wk 15 −15 @ IND

Wk 16 −64 vs CIN

Wk 17 −60 vs TEN

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Texans’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Kicks	+0.31	+7.2
Judgment calls	−0.09	−5.3
Injuries	−0.21	−8.8
3rd & 4th downs	−0.28	−4.2
Fumble bounces	−0.44	−8.8