Week 13 2020 · December 6, 2020
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Colts at Texans, Week 13 2020: who deserved to win?
The Colts beat the Texans 26–20, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10.
Before kickoff the Colts were 60% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 1:28 left): the Texans fumbled and the Colts recovered, worth 25 points of win probability to the Colts.
Final
 Indianapolis Colts | 26 |
|---|---|
 Houston Texans | 20 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +22 Colts about even · −22 Texans
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Colts win 8, Texans win 2.
- 1 IND 38 HOU 9
- 2 IND 37 HOU 16
- 3 IND 30 HOU 13
- 4 IND 30 HOU 16
- 5 IND 27 HOU 17
- 6 IND 27 HOU 19
- 7 IND 27 HOU 21
- 8 IND 17 HOU 15
- 9 IND 17 HOU 21
- 10 IND 6 HOU 19
Your call
Did the Colts earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Colts win 78% of them, Texans 22%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Colts by 6.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Colts by 17+ | 31.8% |
| Colts by 9–16 | 19.8% |
| Colts by 1–8 | 24.9% |
| Level after regulation | 2.3% |
| Texans by 1–8 | 11.6% |
| Texans by 9–16 | 6.6% |
| Texans by 17+ | 3.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- K. Fairbairn, 52 yds made · 68% expected
- K. Fairbairn, 53 yds missed · 67% expected
- R. Blankenship, 42 yds made · 87% expected
- K. Fairbairn, 34 yds made · 94% expected
Penalties: Colts 7 for 50 yards, Texans 3 for 30 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:53 | False Start on the Colts (Michael Pittman Jr.), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% HOU +0.4 pts |
| Q1 6:00 | Defensive Offside on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% HOU +0.5 pts |
| Q1 2:47 | Face Mask on the Texans (Eric Murray), 15 yards | +6% IND +1.1 pts |
| Q2 5:12 | Defensive Holding on the Colts (Anthony Walker), 5 yards | +2% HOU +0.9 pts |
| Q3 8:27 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Colts (Zaire Franklin), 10 yards | +4% HOU +0.9 pts |
| Q4 13:34 | Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards | +6% IND +1.2 pts |
| Q4 6:02 | Offensive Holding on the Colts (Anthony Walker), 10 yards | +4% HOU +0.9 pts |
| Q4 5:12 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Texans (Eric Murray), 5 yards | +4% IND +0.6 pts |
| Q4 3:08 | Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yards | +1% HOU +0.9 pts |
| Q4 2:57 | False Start on the Colts (Michael Pittman Jr.), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% HOU +0.2 pts |
Colts penalties, every game · Texans penalties, every game · All teams, 2020
When it happened
Texans’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 64%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 8:42 | The Texans converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +7% HOU | HOU: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 3:40 | The Colts converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +8% IND | IND: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 2:47 | Face Mask on the Texans (Eric Murray), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 6 flags in 1207 snaps before, position avg 1 per 510 | +6% IND | IND: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 12:36 | K. Fairbairn missed a 53-yard field goalKicks · 67% expected for him, 10 of 17 from 45+ before | +7% IND | HOU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 9:24 | The Colts converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected | +6% IND | IND: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 13:34 | Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +6% IND | IND: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q4 6:50 | The Colts were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected | +13% HOU | IND: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 1:28 | The game turned hereThe Texans fumbled and the Colts recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +25% IND | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Will Fuller (HOU WR), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
- Randall Cobb (HOU WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Bradley Roby (HOU CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- P.J. Hall (HOU DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Anthony Castonzo (IND T), out · 1.1 pts
- Khari Willis (IND S), out · 0.5 pts
- Bobby Okereke (IND LB), out · 0.4 pts
- Rigoberto Sanchez (IND P), out · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Colts 86% · Texans 14%
- Final margin
- Colts by 6
- Luck in points
- 0.6 for the Texans
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Colts by 6.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Colts 78% · Texans 22% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2020 games · 
Colts · 
Texans
More from Week 13 2020
- Bengals at Dolphins MIA 19–7 · replay 91% for the winner
- Browns at Titans CLE 41–35 · replay 64% for the winner
- Lions at Bears DET 34–30 · replay 87% for the winner
- Jaguars at Vikings MIN 27–24 · replay 74% for the winner
- Raiders at Jets LV 31–28 · replay 73% for the winner
- Saints at Falcons NO 21–16 · replay 55% for the winner
- Rams at Cardinals LA 38–28 · replay 91% for the winner
- Giants at Seahawks NYG 17–12 · replay 54% for the winner
- Patriots at Chargers NE 45–0 · replay 55% for the winner
- Eagles at Packers GB 30–16 · replay 90% for the winner
- Broncos at Chiefs KC 22–16 · replay 89% for the winner
- Washington at Steelers WAS 23–17 · replay 31% for the winner
- Bills vs 49ers BUF 34–24 · replay 53% for the winner
- Cowboys at Ravens BAL 34–17 · replay 77% for the winner