luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 13 2020 · December 7, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Washington at Steelers, Week 13 2020: who deserved to win?

Washington beat the Steelers 23–17, but the replays lean toward the Steelers: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran its way: kicks alone were worth 13 points of win probability to Washington.

Before kickoff the Steelers were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 3:10 left): Washington converted 3rd & 4, worth 16 points of win probability to the Washington.

Final

Washington Football Team 23
Pittsburgh Steelers 17

December 7, 2020 · Heinz Field · Closing line: Steelers −5.5

Luck index +69 Washington very lucky · −69 Steelers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Washington wins 3, Steelers win 7.

  1. 1 WAS 20 PIT 3
  2. 2 WAS 26 PIT 17
  3. 3 WAS 25 PIT 22
  4. 4 WAS 17 PIT 19
  5. 5 WAS 23 PIT 28
  6. 6 WAS 14 PIT 23
  7. 7 WAS 13 PIT 25
  8. 8 WAS 0 PIT 16
  9. 9 WAS 12 PIT 33
  10. 10 WAS 24 PIT 54

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Washington wins 31% of them, Steelers 69%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Washington by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Washington by 17+4.6%
Washington by 9–167.8%
Washington by 1–815.5%
Level after regulation4.2%
Steelers by 1–823.6%
Steelers by 9–1619.3%
Steelers by 17+24.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.6 points to Washington: the final margin was Washington by 6, without the luck Washington by 2.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Hopkins, 49 yds made · 63% expected
  • M. Wright, 37 yds made · 89% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 45 yds made · 73% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 45 yds made · 74% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Washington 9 for 62 yards, Steelers 6 for 45 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:23 False Start on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WAS +0.8 pts
Q1 9:57 Illegal Block Above the Waist on Washington (James Smith-Williams), 10 yards +3% PIT +0.9 pts
Q1 7:00 Roughing the Kicker on the Steelers (Marcus Allen), 15 yards +9% WAS +3.7 pts
Q1 5:33 Offensive Holding on Washington (Khaleke Hudson), 10 yards +3% PIT +0.8 pts
Q1 2:00 Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 10 yards +3% WAS +0.9 pts
Q2 11:34 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Steelers, 5 yards, wiping out the play +8% WAS +2.3 pts
Q2 10:33 False Start on Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% PIT +0.7 pts
Q2 10:33 Delay of Game on Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PIT +0.4 pts
Q2 7:01 Unnecessary Roughness on Washington (Tim Settle), 0 yards +1% PIT +0.4 pts
Q3 14:56 Illegal Use of Hands on Washington, 9 yards +1% PIT +0.9 pts
Q3 14:51 False Start on Washington (Logan Thomas), 4 yards · pre-snap 0% PIT +0.4 pts
Q3 8:23 Defensive Holding on the Steelers (T.J. Watt), 0 yards +7% WAS +1.3 pts
Q3 7:40 Defensive Holding on Washington (Jimmy Moreland), 5 yards, wiping out the play +2% PIT +0.8 pts
Q3 3:16 Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 10 yards +3% WAS +0.9 pts
Q3 0:56 Defensive Pass Interference on Washington (Kendall Fuller), 14 yards +3% PIT +1.7 pts

Washington penalties, every game · Steelers penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Steelers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 90%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Steelers were ahead in it, below while Washington was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:00 Roughing the Kicker on the Steelers (Marcus Allen), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 186 snaps before, position avg 1 per 395 +9% WAS WAS: Punt
2 Q2 14:12 The Steelers converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +11% PIT PIT: Touchdown
3 Q2 11:34 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Steelers, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% WAS WAS: Turnover on downs
4 Q2 9:06 Washington was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +8% PIT WAS: Punt
5 Q2 5:38 The Steelers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +9% WAS PIT: Touchdown
6 Q3 2:29 The Steelers converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +8% PIT PIT: Field goal
7 Q4 3:10 Washington converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +16% WAS WAS: Field goal
8 Q4 2:07 D. Hopkins made a 45-yard field goalKicks · 73% expected for him, 7 of 12 from 45+ before +11% WAS WAS: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Steven Nelson (PIT CB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Maurkice Pouncey (PIT C), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • James Conner (PIT RB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Chris Boswell (PIT K), out · 0.3 pts
  • Bud Dupree (PIT LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Kyle Allen (WAS QB), out (IR), replaced by a.smith · 1.7 pts
  • Landon Collins (WAS S), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Geron Christian (WAS T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Washington 71% · Steelers 29%

Final margin
Washington by 6
Luck in points
3.6 for the Washington
Luck-adjusted margin
Washington by 2.4
Replay with same day's form
Washington 31% · Steelers 69% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2020 games · Washington · Steelers

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