Week 13 2020 · December 6, 2020
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Jaguars at Vikings, Week 13 2020: who deserved to win?
The Vikings beat the Jaguars 27–24, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Jaguars had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 16 points of win probability to the Jaguars.
Before kickoff the Vikings were 78% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 0:01 left): C. McLaughlin missed a 62-yard field goal, worth 31 points of win probability to the Vikings. The biggest single swing (OT, 9:13 left): Offensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (Justin Jefferson), 7 yards, wiping out the play.
Final (OT)
 Jacksonville Jaguars | 24 |
|---|---|
 Minnesota Vikings | 27 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +26 Vikings lucky · −26 Jaguars
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Jaguars win 3, Vikings win 7.
- 1 JAX 41 MIN 21
- 2 JAX 17 MIN 9
- 3 JAX 24 MIN 21
- 4 JAX 44 MIN 47
- 5 JAX 30 MIN 36
- 6 JAX 27 MIN 38
- 7 JAX 20 MIN 34
- 8 JAX 23 MIN 40
- 9 JAX 16 MIN 38
- 10 JAX 21 MIN 56
Your call
Did the Vikings earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Jaguars win 26% of them, Vikings 74%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Jaguars by 17+ | 4.3% |
| Jaguars by 9–16 | 7.9% |
| Jaguars by 1–8 | 12.7% |
| Level after regulation | 2.0% |
| Vikings by 1–8 | 21.5% |
| Vikings by 9–16 | 17.9% |
| Vikings by 17+ | 33.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- C. McLaughlin, 22 yds made · 98% expected
- D. Bailey, 48 yds made · 77% expected
- D. Bailey, 51 yds missed · 72% expected
- C. McLaughlin, 62 yds missed · 50% expected
- D. Bailey, 23 yds made · 99% expected
- Extra point missed · 96% expected
- Extra point missed · 96% expected
- Extra point missed · 96% expected
Penalties: Jaguars 10 for 83 yards, Vikings 6 for 41 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:28 | Defensive Holding on the Jaguars (Myles Jack), 5 yards, wiping out the play | +2% JAX +0.1 pts |
| Q1 3:08 | Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards | +2% MIN +0.9 pts |
| Q1 0:59 | False Start on the Jaguars (James Robinson), 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% MIN +0.9 pts |
| Q2 10:02 | False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% MIN +0.7 pts |
| Q2 8:16 | Illegal Shift on the Jaguars (Laviska Shenault Jr.), 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% MIN +1.2 pts |
| Q2 1:28 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Jaguars (Dawuane Smoot), 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% MIN +0.5 pts |
| Q2 1:05 | False Start on the Vikings (Tyler Conklin), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% JAX +0.4 pts |
| Q3 12:32 | Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards | +3% JAX +1.1 pts |
| Q3 7:26 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Vikings (Kris Boyd), 10 yards | +5% JAX +0.8 pts |
| Q3 5:38 | Roughing the Passer on the Jaguars (Josh Jones), 15 yards | +4% MIN +0.5 pts |
| Q3 3:40 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars, 18 yards | +4% MIN +1.5 pts |
| Q4 2:00 | False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% MIN +0.9 pts |
| OT 9:13 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (Justin Jefferson), 7 yards, wiping out the play | +39% JAX +5.2 pts |
| OT 8:16 | Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards | +6% MIN +0.9 pts |
| OT 6:41 | Offensive Offside on the Vikings (Justin Jefferson), 5 yards · pre-snap | +10% JAX +0.8 pts |
| OT 1:53 | False Start on the Vikings, 4 yards · pre-snap | +15% MIN +2.4 pts |
Jaguars penalties, every game · Vikings penalties, every game · All teams, 2020
When it happened
Vikings’ chance of winning
As low as 16% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q3 15:00 | Return touchdown by the JaguarsSpecial teams | +25% JAX | JAX: Opp touchdown |
| 2 | Q3 4:53 | The Vikings converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +11% MIN | MIN: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q4 15:00 | The Vikings fumbled and the Jaguars recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +10% JAX | MIN: Punt |
| 4 | Q4 1:08 | The Jaguars’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +15% JAX | JAX: Missed field goal |
| 5 | Q4 0:18 | D. Bailey missed a 51-yard field goalKicks · 72% expected for him, 10 of 14 from 45+ before | +23% JAX | MIN: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 0:01 | The game turned hereC. McLaughlin missed a 62-yard field goalKicks · 50% expected for him, 7 of 10 from 45+ before | +31% MIN | JAX: Turnover |
| 7 | OT 9:13 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (Justin Jefferson), 7 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 548 snaps before, position avg 1 per 385 | +39% JAX | JAX: Turnover |
| 8 | OT 1:53 | D. Bailey made a 23-yard field goalKicks · 99% expected for himFalse Start on the Vikings, 4 yardsPre-snap flags | +16% MIN | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Andrew Norwell (JAX OL), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- C.J. Henderson (JAX CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Josh Lambo (JAX K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Sidney Jones (JAX CB), out · 0.3 pts
- Chris Claybrooks (JAX CB/R), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Jaguars 45% · Vikings 55%
- Final margin
- Vikings by 3
- Luck in points
- 3.4 for the Vikings
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Jaguars by 0.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Jaguars 26% · Vikings 74% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2020 games · 
Jaguars · 
Vikings
More from Week 13 2020
- Bengals at Dolphins MIA 19–7 · replay 91% for the winner
- Browns at Titans CLE 41–35 · replay 64% for the winner
- Lions at Bears DET 34–30 · replay 87% for the winner
- Colts at Texans IND 26–20 · replay 78% for the winner
- Raiders at Jets LV 31–28 · replay 73% for the winner
- Saints at Falcons NO 21–16 · replay 55% for the winner
- Rams at Cardinals LA 38–28 · replay 91% for the winner
- Giants at Seahawks NYG 17–12 · replay 54% for the winner
- Patriots at Chargers NE 45–0 · replay 55% for the winner
- Eagles at Packers GB 30–16 · replay 90% for the winner
- Broncos at Chiefs KC 22–16 · replay 89% for the winner
- Washington at Steelers WAS 23–17 · replay 31% for the winner
- Bills vs 49ers BUF 34–24 · replay 53% for the winner
- Cowboys at Ravens BAL 34–17 · replay 77% for the winner