luckadjusted

Week 13 2020 · December 6, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Jaguars at Vikings, Week 13 2020: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Jaguars 27–24 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10. The Jaguars had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 4.2 points to the Jaguars.

Before kickoff the Vikings were 78% favorites. The biggest swing (QOT, 9:13 left): Offensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (Justin Jefferson), 7 yards, wiping out the play, worth 39 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Final (OT)

Jacksonville Jaguars 24
Minnesota Vikings 27

December 6, 2020 · U.S. Bank Stadium · Closing line: Vikings −10.5

Luck index +23 Vikings about even · −23 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jaguars win 2, Vikings win 8.

  1. 1 JAX 42 MIN 26
  2. 2 JAX 23 MIN 19
  3. 3 JAX 24 MIN 26
  4. 4 JAX 19 MIN 24
  5. 5 JAX 44 MIN 52
  6. 6 JAX 28 MIN 38
  7. 7 JAX 37 MIN 51
  8. 8 JAX 10 MIN 29
  9. 9 JAX 27 MIN 50
  10. 10 JAX 6 MIN 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jaguars win 23% of them, Vikings 77%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jaguars by 17+4.0%
Jaguars by 9–166.7%
Jaguars by 1–811.3%
Level after regulation1.5%
Vikings by 1–820.7%
Vikings by 9–1620.0%
Vikings by 17+35.9%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Vikings by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Vikings by 1.9.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. McLaughlin, 22 yds made · 99% expected
  • D. Bailey, 48 yds made · 77% expected
  • D. Bailey, 51 yds missed · 73% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 62 yds missed · 57% expected
  • D. Bailey, 23 yds made · 99% expected
  • Extra point missed · 95% expected
  • Extra point missed · 95% expected
  • Extra point missed · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Vikings’ chance of winning

As low as 16% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Vikings were ahead in it, below while the Jaguars were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 6:07 C. McLaughlin made 22-yard field goalKicks · 99% expected for him +11% MIN JAX: Punt
2 Q3 15:00 Return touchdown by the JaguarsSpecial teams +25% JAX JAX: Opp touchdown
3 Q3 2:43 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expectedThe Jaguars fumbled and the Vikings recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +16% MIN JAX: Safety
4 Q4 1:08 The Jaguars’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +15% JAX JAX: Missed field goal
5 Q4 0:18 D. Bailey missed 51-yard field goalKicks · 73% expected for him, 10 of 14 from 45+ before +23% JAX MIN: Punt
6 Q4 0:01 C. McLaughlin missed 62-yard field goalKicks · 57% expected for him, 7 of 10 from 45+ before +35% MIN JAX: Turnover
7 QOT 9:13 Offensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (Justin Jefferson), 7 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 548 snaps before, position avg 1 per 385 +39% JAX JAX: Turnover
8 QOT 1:53 D. Bailey made 23-yard field goalKicks · 99% expected for himFalse Start on the Vikings, 4 yardsPre-snap flags +16% MIN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Andrew Norwell (JAX OL), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • C.J. Henderson (JAX CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Josh Lambo (JAX K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Sidney Jones (JAX CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Chris Claybrooks (JAX CB/R), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jaguars 35% · Vikings 65%

Final margin
Vikings by 3
Luck in points
1.1 for the Vikings
Luck-adjusted margin
Vikings by 1.9
Replay with same day's form
Jaguars 23% · Vikings 77% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2020 games · Jaguars · Vikings

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