luckadjusted

Week 13 2020 · December 6, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Browns at Titans, Week 13 2020: who deserved to win?

The Browns beat the Titans 41–35 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Titans had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 7.7 points to the Titans.

Before kickoff the Titans were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 8:02 left): the Titans were stopped on 4th & 1, worth 10 points of win probability to the Browns.

Final

Cleveland Browns 41
Tennessee Titans 35

December 6, 2020 · Nissan Stadium · Closing line: Titans −4

Luck index +35 Browns lucky · −35 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 7, Titans win 3.

  1. 1 CLE 47 TEN 20
  2. 2 CLE 31 TEN 10
  3. 3 CLE 26 TEN 10
  4. 4 CLE 39 TEN 27
  5. 5 CLE 33 TEN 24
  6. 6 CLE 34 TEN 28
  7. 7 CLE 41 TEN 38
  8. 8 CLE 21 TEN 24
  9. 9 CLE 24 TEN 34
  10. 10 CLE 26 TEN 49

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 65% of them, Titans 35%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Browns by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+22.8%
Browns by 9–1619.8%
Browns by 1–822.7%
Level after regulation2.9%
Titans by 1–816.6%
Titans by 9–169.2%
Titans by 17+6.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Browns by 6. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Browns by 11.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Parkey, 27 yds made · 98% expected
  • C. Parkey, 43 yds made · 85% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Titans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 60%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Titans were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:57 False Start on the Browns (Rashard Higgins), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 1 flag in 497 snaps before, position avg 1 per 385 +3% TEN TEN: Turnover on downs
2 Q1 8:08 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +5% CLE TEN: Turnover on downs
3 Q1 8:02 The Titans were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +10% CLE TEN: Turnover
4 Q1 5:54 Roughing the Passer on the Titans (Rashaan Evans), 12 yardsJudgment calls · 8 flags in 1694 snaps before, position avg 1 per 395 +4% CLE CLE: Touchdown
5 Q1 4:39 The Browns converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +5% CLE CLE: Touchdown
6 Q1 3:15 The Titans fumbled and the Browns recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +4% CLE TEN: Touchdown
7 Q3 8:29 The Browns converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +4% CLE CLE: Field goal
8 Q3 5:24 Unnecessary Roughness on the Browns (Kevin Johnson), 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 4 flags in 1046 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 +4% TEN TEN: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jonnu Smith (TEN TE), out · 0.7 pts
  • Jadeveon Clowney (TEN DE), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Taylor Lewan (TEN T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Jadeveon Clowney (TEN OLB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Ty Sambrailo (TEN T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jayon Brown (TEN LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Kristian Fulton (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Denzel Ward (CLE CB), out · 1.2 pts
  • Ronnie Harrison (CLE S), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 94% · Titans 6%

Final margin
Browns by 6
Luck in points
5.2 for the Titans
Luck-adjusted margin
Browns by 11.2
Replay with same day's form
Browns 65% · Titans 35% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2020 games · Browns · Titans

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