luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 13 2020 · December 6, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Browns at Titans, Week 13 2020: who deserved to win?

The Browns beat the Titans 41–35, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10.

Before kickoff the Titans were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 8:02 left): the Titans were stopped on 4th & 1, worth 10 points of win probability to the Browns.

Final

Cleveland Browns 41
Tennessee Titans 35

December 6, 2020 · Nissan Stadium · Closing line: Titans −4

Luck index +36 Browns lucky · −36 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 6, Titans win 4.

  1. 1 CLE 41 TEN 14
  2. 2 CLE 26 TEN 6
  3. 3 CLE 26 TEN 12
  4. 4 CLE 40 TEN 31
  5. 5 CLE 37 TEN 31
  6. 6 CLE 30 TEN 27
  7. 7 CLE 28 TEN 30
  8. 8 CLE 31 TEN 37
  9. 9 CLE 17 TEN 27
  10. 10 CLE 21 TEN 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 64% of them, Titans 36%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Browns by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+20.7%
Browns by 9–1618.4%
Browns by 1–823.8%
Level after regulation1.9%
Titans by 1–817.8%
Titans by 9–1610.3%
Titans by 17+7.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.0 points to the Titans: the final margin was Browns by 6, without the luck Browns by 7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Parkey, 27 yds made · 98% expected
  • C. Parkey, 43 yds made · 86% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Browns 13 for 92 yards, Titans 5 for 52 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:57 False Start on the Browns (Rashard Higgins), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% TEN +0.5 pts
Q1 7:51 False Start on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TEN +0.6 pts
Q1 5:54 Roughing the Passer on the Titans (Rashaan Evans), 12 yards +4% CLE +1.1 pts
Q1 3:19 False Start on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TEN 0.0 pts
Q1 0:12 Encroachment on the Titans, 1 yard · pre-snap 0% CLE +0.7 pts
Q2 11:35 Offensive Holding on the Browns (Elijah Lee), 10 yards +1% TEN +0.9 pts
Q2 9:46 Unnecessary Roughness on the Titans (Jeffery Simmons), 15 yards +2% CLE +1.8 pts
Q2 2:29 Unnecessary Roughness on the Titans (Rashaan Evans), 14 yards 0% CLE +1.3 pts
Q3 13:52 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards 0% TEN +1.5 pts
Q3 13:52 Encroachment on the Browns (Larry Ogunjobi), 1 yard · pre-snap 0% TEN 0.0 pts
Q3 8:32 Intentional Grounding on the Browns (Baker Mayfield), 10 yards +1% TEN +0.7 pts
Q3 5:24 Unnecessary Roughness on the Browns (Kevin Johnson), 15 yards, wiping out the play +4% TEN +4.8 pts
Q3 1:45 Defensive Holding on the Browns (M.J. Stewart), 5 yards +1% TEN +3.2 pts
Q4 12:58 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Browns, 10 yards 0% TEN +0.9 pts
Q4 12:48 Offensive Holding on the Browns (Austin Hooper), 10 yards 0% CLE +1.2 pts
Q4 2:26 Illegal Use of Hands on the Titans, 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% CLE +1.9 pts
Q4 1:29 Defensive Offside on the Browns (Larry Ogunjobi), 1 yard · pre-snap 0% CLE +0.4 pts
Q4 0:33 Defensive Offside on the Browns (Myles Garrett), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TEN +0.1 pts

Browns penalties, every game · Titans penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Titans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 60%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Titans were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:57 False Start on the Browns (Rashard Higgins), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 1 flag in 497 snaps before, position avg 1 per 385 +3% TEN TEN: Turnover on downs
2 Q1 8:08 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +5% CLE TEN: Turnover on downs
3 Q1 8:02 The Titans were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +10% CLE TEN: Turnover
4 Q1 5:54 Roughing the Passer on the Titans (Rashaan Evans), 12 yardsJudgment calls · 8 flags in 1694 snaps before, position avg 1 per 395 +4% CLE CLE: Touchdown
5 Q1 4:39 The Browns converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +5% CLE CLE: Touchdown
6 Q1 3:15 The Titans fumbled and the Browns recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +4% CLE TEN: Touchdown
7 Q3 8:29 The Browns converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +4% CLE CLE: Field goal
8 Q3 5:24 Unnecessary Roughness on the Browns (Kevin Johnson), 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 4 flags in 1046 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 +4% TEN TEN: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jonnu Smith (TEN TE), out · 0.7 pts
  • Jadeveon Clowney (TEN DE), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Taylor Lewan (TEN T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Jadeveon Clowney (TEN OLB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Ty Sambrailo (TEN T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jayon Brown (TEN LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Kristian Fulton (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Denzel Ward (CLE CB), out · 1.2 pts
  • Ronnie Harrison (CLE S), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 91% · Titans 9%

Final margin
Browns by 6
Luck in points
1.0 for the Titans
Luck-adjusted margin
Browns by 7.0
Replay with same day's form
Browns 64% · Titans 36% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2020 games · Browns · Titans

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