Week 13 2020 · December 6, 2020
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Saints at Falcons, Week 13 2020: who deserved to win?
The Saints beat the Falcons 21–16, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Saints win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 10 points of win probability to the Saints.
Before kickoff the Saints were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:30 left): the Falcons converted 3rd & 11, worth 22 points of win probability to the Falcons.
Final
 New Orleans Saints | 21 |
|---|---|
 Atlanta Falcons | 16 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +45 Saints lucky · −45 Falcons
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Saints win 5, Falcons win 5.
- 1 NO 38 ATL 17
- 2 NO 27 ATL 13
- 3 NO 27 ATL 17
- 4 NO 16 ATL 10
- 5 NO 19 ATL 16
- 6 NO 14 ATL 16
- 7 NO 10 ATL 16
- 8 NO 24 ATL 34
- 9 NO 17 ATL 31
- 10 NO 7 ATL 31
Your call
Did the Saints earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Saints win 55% of them, Falcons 45%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Saints by 5.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Saints by 17+ | 12.7% |
| Saints by 9–16 | 15.6% |
| Saints by 1–8 | 21.6% |
| Level after regulation | 5.2% |
| Falcons by 1–8 | 21.9% |
| Falcons by 9–16 | 13.5% |
| Falcons by 17+ | 9.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- Y. Koo, 53 yds made · 73% expected
- W. Lutz, 40 yds missed · 90% expected
- Y. Koo, 30 yds made · 97% expected
- Y. Koo, 28 yds made · 98% expected
Penalties: Saints 10 for 79 yards, Falcons 1 for 15 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:45 | Offensive Holding on the Saints, 7 yards | +2% ATL +0.6 pts |
| Q1 9:54 | Roughing the Passer on the Falcons (Grady Jarrett), 15 yards | +6% NO +2.2 pts |
| Q2 14:19 | False Start on the Saints (Alvin Kamara), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ATL +0.7 pts |
| Q2 12:56 | Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards | +2% ATL +1.5 pts |
| Q2 12:00 | Delay of Game on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ATL +0.3 pts |
| Q2 3:37 | Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards | +4% ATL +1.8 pts |
| Q2 0:34 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Marshon Lattimore), 3 yards | +1% ATL +0.2 pts |
| Q2 0:20 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (C.J. Gardner-Johnson), 14 yards | +6% ATL +0.8 pts |
| Q4 10:45 | Defensive Holding on the Saints (P.J. Williams), 5 yards | 0% ATL +0.8 pts |
| Q4 8:44 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Saints (C.J. Gardner-Johnson), 15 yards | +2% ATL +1.4 pts |
| Q4 8:20 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Saints (Marshon Lattimore), 5 yards | +1% ATL +0.1 pts |
Saints penalties, every game · Falcons penalties, every game · All teams, 2020
When it happened
Falcons’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 58%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 0:42 | The Saints converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +8% NO | NO: Missed field goal |
| 2 | Q2 12:00 | W. Lutz missed a 40-yard field goalKicks · 90% expected for himDelay of Game on the Saints, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +8% ATL | NO: Turnover on downs |
| 3 | Q2 6:22 | The Falcons converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +6% ATL | ATL: Field goal |
| 4 | Q2 2:22 | The Saints converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +7% NO | NO: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 0:20 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (C.J. Gardner-Johnson), 14 yardsJudgment calls · 12 flags in 1517 snaps before, position avg 1 per 237 | +6% ATL | ATL: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 2:30 | The Falcons converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +22% ATL | ATL: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q4 1:49 | The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected | +13% NO | ATL: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 1:42 | The Falcons were stopped on 4th & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +14% NO | ATL: End of game |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- James Carpenter (ATL G), out · 0.4 pts
- Drew Brees (NO QB), out (IR), replaced by t.hill · 7.5 pts
- Terron Armstead (NO T), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
- Marcus Davenport (NO DE), out · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Saints 94% · Falcons 6%
- Final margin
- Saints by 5
- Luck in points
- 9.4 for the Falcons
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Saints by 14.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Saints 55% · Falcons 45% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2020 games · 
Saints · 
Falcons
More from Week 13 2020
- Bengals at Dolphins MIA 19–7 · replay 91% for the winner
- Browns at Titans CLE 41–35 · replay 64% for the winner
- Lions at Bears DET 34–30 · replay 87% for the winner
- Colts at Texans IND 26–20 · replay 78% for the winner
- Jaguars at Vikings MIN 27–24 · replay 74% for the winner
- Raiders at Jets LV 31–28 · replay 73% for the winner
- Rams at Cardinals LA 38–28 · replay 91% for the winner
- Giants at Seahawks NYG 17–12 · replay 54% for the winner
- Patriots at Chargers NE 45–0 · replay 55% for the winner
- Eagles at Packers GB 30–16 · replay 90% for the winner
- Broncos at Chiefs KC 22–16 · replay 89% for the winner
- Washington at Steelers WAS 23–17 · replay 31% for the winner
- Bills vs 49ers BUF 34–24 · replay 53% for the winner
- Cowboys at Ravens BAL 34–17 · replay 77% for the winner