2020 season · final
New Orleans Saints, 2020: game by game
The Saints went 12–4 in 2020; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 10.3 wins. Luck added 1.7: the 8th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 5–3.
Playoffs: 1–1, replay wins 1.3.
Every game
How often the Saints win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Buccaneers | W 34–23 | 40% | +60 |
| Week 2 | @ Raiders | L 24–34 | 80% | −80 |
| Week 3 | vs Packers | L 30–37 | 31% | −31 |
| Week 4 | @ Lions | W 35–29 | 69% | +31 |
| Week 5 | vs Chargers | W 30–27 | 75% | +25 |
| Week 7 | vs Panthers | W 27–24 | 43% | +57 |
| Week 8 | @ Bears | W 26–23 | 75% | +25 |
| Week 9 | @ Buccaneers | W 38–3 | 69% | +31 |
| Week 10 | vs 49ers | W 27–13 | 35% | +65 |
| Week 11 | vs Falcons | W 24–9 | 93% | +7 |
| Week 12 | @ Broncos | W 31–3 | 84% | +16 |
| Week 13 | @ Falcons | W 21–16 | 55% | +45 |
| Week 14 | @ Eagles | L 21–24 | 71% | −71 |
| Week 15 | vs Chiefs | L 29–32 | 32% | −32 |
| Week 16 | vs Vikings | W 52–33 | 96% | +4 |
| Week 17 | @ Panthers | W 33–7 | 87% | +13 |
| Wild Card | vs Bears | W 21–9 | 82% | +18 |
| Divisional round | vs Buccaneers | L 20–30 | 44% | −44 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Saints’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Fumble bounces | +0.33 | +16.1 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.20 | +9.8 |
| Kicks | −0.16 | −10.4 |
| Injuries | −0.46 | −17.9 |
| Judgment calls | −0.62 | −26.4 |