luckadjusted

Wild Card 2020 · January 10, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Bears at Saints, Wild Card 2020: who deserved to win?

The Saints beat the Bears 21–9, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Saints win 8 of 10. The Bears had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 3.5 points to the Bears.

Before kickoff the Saints were 79% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 6:46 left): the Saints converted 3rd & 8, worth 9 points of win probability to the Saints.

Final

Chicago Bears 9
New Orleans Saints 21

January 10, 2021 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome · Closing line: Saints −11

Luck index +20 Saints about even · −20 Bears

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bears win 2, Saints win 8.

  1. 1 CHI 14 NO 3
  2. 2 CHI 30 NO 27
  3. 3 CHI 14 NO 16
  4. 4 CHI 20 NO 24
  5. 5 CHI 16 NO 23
  6. 6 CHI 18 NO 28
  7. 7 CHI 7 NO 19
  8. 8 CHI 19 NO 34
  9. 9 CHI 6 NO 27
  10. 10 CHI 20 NO 47

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bears win 20% of them, Saints 80%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Saints by 12.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bears by 17+1.5%
Bears by 9–165.3%
Bears by 1–812.4%
Level after regulation1.9%
Saints by 1–827.1%
Saints by 9–1621.2%
Saints by 17+30.6%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Saints by 12. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Saints by 5.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • W. Lutz, 50 yds missed · 74% expected
  • C. Santos, 36 yds made · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Saints’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Saints were ahead in it, below while the Bears were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:26 The Saints converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +6% NO NO: Punt
2 Q1 10:55 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +6% CHI NO: Punt
3 Q1 6:46 The Saints converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +9% NO NO: Touchdown
4 Q2 14:14 W. Lutz missed 50-yard field goalKicks · 74% expected for him, 16 of 22 from 45+ before +7% CHI NO: Turnover
5 Q2 11:38 The Saints fumbled and the Bears recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% CHI NO: Punt
6 Q2 3:28 The Saints converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +8% NO NO: Punt
7 Q2 2:00 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +5% CHI NO: Punt
8 Q3 10:17 The Saints converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +8% NO NO: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Trey Hendrickson (NO DE), out · 0.6 pts
  • Tre'Quan Smith (NO WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Kwon Alexander (NO LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Nick Easton (NO C/G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Roquan Smith (CHI LB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Darnell Mooney (CHI WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Jaylon Johnson (CHI DB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Buster Skrine (CHI DB), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bears 9% · Saints 91%

Final margin
Saints by 12
Luck in points
6.9 for the Saints
Luck-adjusted margin
Saints by 5.1
Replay with same day's form
Bears 20% · Saints 80% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Wild Card 2020 games · Bears · Saints

More from Wild Card 2020