luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Wild Card 2020 · January 10, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Browns at Steelers, Wild Card 2020: who deserved to win?

The Browns beat the Steelers 48–37, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Browns win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 11 points of win probability to the Browns.

Before kickoff the Steelers were 64% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 14:54 left): Return touchdown by the Browns, worth 33 points of win probability to the Browns.

Final

Cleveland Browns 48
Pittsburgh Steelers 37

January 10, 2021 · Heinz Field · Closing line: Steelers −5

Luck index +49 Browns lucky · −49 Steelers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 5, Steelers win 5.

  1. 1 CLE 57 PIT 31
  2. 2 CLE 47 PIT 31
  3. 3 CLE 26 PIT 14
  4. 4 CLE 27 PIT 21
  5. 5 CLE 34 PIT 31
  6. 6 CLE 47 PIT 50
  7. 7 CLE 33 PIT 40
  8. 8 CLE 16 PIT 27
  9. 9 CLE 20 PIT 37
  10. 10 CLE 20 PIT 47

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 51% of them, Steelers 49%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Browns by 11.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+13.2%
Browns by 9–1614.0%
Browns by 1–821.1%
Level after regulation4.7%
Steelers by 1–819.4%
Steelers by 9–1613.9%
Steelers by 17+13.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.7 points to the Steelers: the final margin was Browns by 11, without the luck Browns by 12.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Boswell, 49 yds made · 73% expected
  • C. Parkey, 24 yds made · 98% expected
  • C. Parkey, 37 yds made · 91% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Browns 3 for 20 yards, Steelers 4 for 25 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 4:04 Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +2% CLE +1.8 pts
Q1 1:56 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Steelers, 5 yards, wiping out the play 0% CLE +2.5 pts
Q2 15:00 False Start on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CLE +0.6 pts
Q2 8:53 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% PIT +2.0 pts
Q2 0:34 Illegal Formation on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PIT +0.5 pts
Q3 12:27 Illegal Formation on the Browns, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap 0% PIT +1.3 pts
Q4 15:00 Delay of Game on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CLE +0.9 pts

Browns penalties, every game · Steelers penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Steelers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 55%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Steelers were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:54 The Steelers fumbled and the Browns recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the BrownsSpecial teams +33% CLE PIT: Turnover
2 Q1 9:55 The Browns converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +2% CLE CLE: Touchdown
3 Q1 8:27 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +3% CLE PIT: Punt
4 Q1 5:12 The Browns converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +2% CLE CLE: Touchdown
5 Q1 2:01 The Browns converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +3% CLE CLE: Touchdown
6 Q3 3:48 The Steelers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +2% PIT PIT: Touchdown
7 Q3 3:01 The Steelers converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +3% PIT PIT: Touchdown
8 Q3 0:20 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +2% CLE PIT: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Joe Haden (PIT CB), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Bud Dupree (PIT LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Denzel Ward (CLE CB), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Olivier Vernon (CLE DE), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Joel Bitonio (CLE G), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Kevin Johnson (CLE CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 100% · Steelers 0%

Final margin
Browns by 11
Luck in points
1.7 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Browns by 12.7
Replay with same day's form
Browns 51% · Steelers 49% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Wild Card 2020 games · Browns · Steelers

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