luckadjusted

Wild Card 2020 · January 10, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Browns at Steelers, Wild Card 2020: who deserved to win?

The Browns beat the Steelers 48–37, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Browns win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 2.3 points to the Browns.

Before kickoff the Steelers were 64% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 14:54 left): Return touchdown by the Browns, worth 33 points of win probability to the Browns.

Final

Cleveland Browns 48
Pittsburgh Steelers 37

January 10, 2021 · Heinz Field · Closing line: Steelers −5

Luck index +48 Browns lucky · −48 Steelers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 5, Steelers win 5.

  1. 1 CLE 45 PIT 19
  2. 2 CLE 40 PIT 24
  3. 3 CLE 34 PIT 23
  4. 4 CLE 38 PIT 32
  5. 5 CLE 45 PIT 43
  6. 6 CLE 23 PIT 26
  7. 7 CLE 33 PIT 39
  8. 8 CLE 24 PIT 34
  9. 9 CLE 24 PIT 40
  10. 10 CLE 20 PIT 46

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 52% of them, Steelers 48%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Browns by 11.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+13.8%
Browns by 9–1613.9%
Browns by 1–821.0%
Level after regulation4.7%
Steelers by 1–820.3%
Steelers by 9–1613.9%
Steelers by 17+12.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Browns by 11. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Browns by 12.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Boswell, 49 yds made · 74% expected
  • C. Parkey, 24 yds made · 99% expected
  • C. Parkey, 37 yds made · 91% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Steelers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 55%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Steelers were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:54 The Steelers fumbled and the Browns recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the BrownsSpecial teams +33% CLE PIT: Turnover
2 Q1 9:55 The Browns converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +7% CLE CLE: Touchdown
3 Q1 8:27 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +3% CLE PIT: Punt
4 Q1 5:12 The Browns converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +2% CLE CLE: Touchdown
5 Q1 2:01 The Browns converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +5% CLE CLE: Touchdown
6 Q3 3:48 The Steelers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +2% PIT PIT: Touchdown
7 Q3 3:01 The Steelers converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +3% PIT PIT: Touchdown
8 Q3 0:20 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +2% CLE PIT: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Joe Haden (PIT CB), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Bud Dupree (PIT LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Denzel Ward (CLE CB), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Olivier Vernon (CLE DE), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Joel Bitonio (CLE G), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Kevin Johnson (CLE CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 98% · Steelers 2%

Final margin
Browns by 11
Luck in points
1.2 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Browns by 12.2
Replay with same day's form
Browns 52% · Steelers 48% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Wild Card 2020 games · Browns · Steelers

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