luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

2020 NFL season · January 9, 2021–January 10

Wild Card 2020: who deserved to win

No winner of Wild Card was behind in the replays. The closest call: the Bills won 27–24 and take 47% of replays.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Wild Card 2020 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 1 of 2 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Browns 48–37 @ Steelers 36% 51% Coin flip
Rams 30–20 @ Seahawks 41% 61% Deserved

Luck ranking, wild card

Every team’s luck index this round: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Bills W 27–24 vs Colts 47% +53
2 Browns W 48–37 @ Steelers 51% +49
3 Rams W 30–20 @ Seahawks 61% +39
4 Ravens W 20–13 @ Titans 79% +21
5 Saints W 21–9 vs Bears 82% +18
6 Buccaneers W 31–23 @ Washington 91% +9
7 Washington L 23–31 vs Buccaneers 9% −9
8 Bears L 9–21 @ Saints 18% −18
9 Titans L 13–20 vs Ravens 21% −21
10 Seahawks L 20–30 vs Rams 39% −39
11 Steelers L 37–48 vs Browns 49% −49
12 Colts L 24–27 @ Bills 53% −53