luckadjusted

Wild Card 2020 · January 9, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Buccaneers at Washington, Wild Card 2020: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers beat Washington 31–23, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Buccaneers win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 77% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 2:26 left): Washington converted 3rd & 5, worth 14 points of win probability to the Washington.

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31
Washington Football Team 23

January 9, 2021 · FedExField · Closing line: Buccaneers −10

Luck index +10 Buccaneers about even · −10 Washington

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Buccaneers win 9, Washington win 1.

  1. 1 TB 49 WAS 17
  2. 2 TB 55 WAS 30
  3. 3 TB 34 WAS 13
  4. 4 TB 27 WAS 10
  5. 5 TB 34 WAS 20
  6. 6 TB 22 WAS 10
  7. 7 TB 20 WAS 10
  8. 8 TB 40 WAS 34
  9. 9 TB 37 WAS 34
  10. 10 TB 37 WAS 44

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Buccaneers win 90% of them, Washington 10%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Buccaneers by 17+52.3%
Buccaneers by 9–1619.9%
Buccaneers by 1–816.8%
Level after regulation1.3%
Washington by 1–86.2%
Washington by 9–162.6%
Washington by 17+0.9%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Buccaneers by 8. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Buccaneers by 7.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Succop, 29 yds made · 95% expected
  • R. Succop, 23 yds made · 98% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 36 yds made · 90% expected
  • R. Succop, 38 yds made · 88% expected
  • R. Succop, 37 yds made · 89% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Washington’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Washington were ahead in it, below while the Buccaneers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 6:26 Washington converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +10% WAS WAS: Turnover
2 Q1 4:49 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +9% TB TB: Touchdown
3 Q1 2:58 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +11% TB TB: Touchdown
4 Q2 1:53 R. Succop made 23-yard field goalKicks · 98% expected for him +9% WAS TB: Punt
5 Q3 10:07 Offensive Holding on Washington, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% TB TB: Turnover
6 Q3 2:26 Washington converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +14% WAS WAS: Touchdown
7 Q3 1:22 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +10% TB TB: Field goal
8 Q4 4:57 Washington converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +9% WAS WAS: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Deshazor Everett (WAS S), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Devin White (TB ILB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • A.Q. Shipley (TB C), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Buccaneers 89% · Washington 11%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 8
Luck in points
0.3 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Buccaneers by 7.7
Replay with same day's form
Buccaneers 90% · Washington 10% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Wild Card 2020 games · Buccaneers · Washington

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