luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Wild Card 2020 · January 9, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Buccaneers at Washington, Wild Card 2020: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers beat Washington 31–23, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Buccaneers win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 77% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 2:26 left): Washington converted 3rd & 5, worth 12 points of win probability to the Washington.

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31
Washington Football Team 23

January 9, 2021 · FedExField · Closing line: Buccaneers −10

Luck index +9 Buccaneers about even · −9 Washington

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Buccaneers win 9, Washington wins 1.

  1. 1 TB 51 WAS 15
  2. 2 TB 40 WAS 14
  3. 3 TB 38 WAS 17
  4. 4 TB 37 WAS 19
  5. 5 TB 21 WAS 6
  6. 6 TB 50 WAS 38
  7. 7 TB 33 WAS 24
  8. 8 TB 23 WAS 17
  9. 9 TB 33 WAS 30
  10. 10 TB 23 WAS 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Buccaneers win 91% of them, Washington 9%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Buccaneers by 17+55.3%
Buccaneers by 9–1619.9%
Buccaneers by 1–815.3%
Level after regulation0.9%
Washington by 1–85.7%
Washington by 9–162.4%
Washington by 17+0.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.9 points to Washington: the final margin was Buccaneers by 8, without the luck Buccaneers by 8.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Succop, 29 yds made · 95% expected
  • R. Succop, 23 yds made · 97% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 36 yds made · 91% expected
  • R. Succop, 38 yds made · 88% expected
  • R. Succop, 37 yds made · 90% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Buccaneers 3 for 24 yards, Washington 2 for 25 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:50 Face Mask on Washington (Kendall Fuller), 15 yards +5% TB +1.8 pts
Q1 7:32 Delay of Game on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% WAS +0.8 pts
Q3 14:15 Defensive Offside on the Buccaneers (Jason Pierre-Paul), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WAS +0.3 pts
Q3 10:07 Offensive Holding on Washington, 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% TB +2.6 pts
Q3 4:13 Horse Collar Tackle on the Buccaneers (Sean Murphy-Bunting), 14 yards +5% WAS +1.7 pts

Buccaneers penalties, every game · Washington penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Washington’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while Washington was ahead in it, below while the Buccaneers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 4:49 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +9% TB TB: Touchdown
2 Q2 14:56 Washington converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +6% WAS WAS: Touchdown
3 Q2 13:02 Washington converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +6% WAS WAS: Touchdown
4 Q3 10:07 Offensive Holding on Washington, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% TB TB: Turnover
5 Q3 2:26 Washington converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +12% WAS WAS: Touchdown
6 Q3 2:14 Washington’s two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +7% TB WAS: Punt
7 Q3 1:22 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +7% TB TB: Field goal
8 Q4 4:57 Washington converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +7% WAS WAS: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Deshazor Everett (WAS S), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Devin White (TB ILB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • A.Q. Shipley (TB C), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Buccaneers 96% · Washington 4%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 8
Luck in points
0.9 for the Washington
Luck-adjusted margin
Buccaneers by 8.9
Replay with same day's form
Buccaneers 91% · Washington 9% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Wild Card 2020 games · Buccaneers · Washington

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