luckadjusted

2020 season · final

Washington Football Team, 2020: game by game

Washington went 7–9 in 2020; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 6.0 wins. Luck added 1.0: the 11th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 3–5.

Playoffs: 0–1, replay wins 0.1.

Every game

How often Washington win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 vs Eagles W 27–17 42% +58
Week 2 @ Cardinals L 15–30 24% −24
Week 3 @ Browns L 20–34 3% −3
Week 4 vs Ravens L 17–31 5% −5
Week 5 vs Rams L 10–30 1% −1
Week 6 @ Giants L 19–20 14% −14
Week 7 vs Cowboys W 25–3 91% +9
Week 9 vs Giants L 20–23 70% −70
Week 10 @ Lions L 27–30 16% −16
Week 11 vs Bengals W 20–9 88% +12
Week 12 @ Cowboys W 41–16 68% +32
Week 13 @ Steelers W 23–17 28% +72
Week 14 @ 49ers W 23–15 30% +70
Week 15 vs Seahawks L 15–20 9% −9
Week 16 vs Panthers L 13–20 46% −46
Week 17 @ Eagles W 20–14 63% +37
Wild Card vs Buccaneers L 23–31 10% −10

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in Washington’ favor.

KindPointsPer game
Injuries+22.8+1.43
3rd & 4th downs+10.7+0.67
Judgment calls+8.8+0.55
Rest+2.2+0.14
Fumble bounces−4.7−0.29
Kicks−9.7−0.61