2020 season · final
Washington Football Team, 2020: game by game
Washington went 7–9 in 2020; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 5.9 wins. Luck added 1.1: the 11th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 3–5.
Playoffs: 0–1, replay wins 0.1.
Every game
How often Washington win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Eagles | W 27–17 | 40% | +60 |
| Week 2 | @ Cardinals | L 15–30 | 21% | −21 |
| Week 3 | @ Browns | L 20–34 | 3% | −3 |
| Week 4 | vs Ravens | L 17–31 | 4% | −4 |
| Week 5 | vs Rams | L 10–30 | 1% | −1 |
| Week 6 | @ Giants | L 19–20 | 13% | −13 |
| Week 7 | vs Cowboys | W 25–3 | 91% | +9 |
| Week 9 | vs Giants | L 20–23 | 66% | −66 |
| Week 10 | @ Lions | L 27–30 | 18% | −18 |
| Week 11 | vs Bengals | W 20–9 | 89% | +11 |
| Week 12 | @ Cowboys | W 41–16 | 69% | +31 |
| Week 13 | @ Steelers | W 23–17 | 31% | +69 |
| Week 14 | vs 49ers | W 23–15 | 28% | +72 |
| Week 15 | vs Seahawks | L 15–20 | 10% | −10 |
| Week 16 | vs Panthers | L 13–20 | 44% | −44 |
| Week 17 | @ Eagles | W 20–14 | 62% | +38 |
| Wild Card | vs Buccaneers | L 23–31 | 9% | −9 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Washington’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Injuries | +0.48 | +16.9 |
| Judgment calls | +0.26 | +5.2 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.25 | +10.3 |
| Rest | +0.06 | +2.2 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.03 | −6.5 |
| Kicks | −0.18 | −9.3 |