luckadjusted

Week 9 2020 · November 8, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Giants at Washington, Week 9 2020: who deserved to win?

The Giants beat Washington 23–20, but Washington played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 1.6 points to the Giants.

Before kickoff Washington were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:27 left): Washington were stopped on 3rd & 10, worth 26 points of win probability to the Giants.

Final

New York Giants 23
Washington Football Team 20

November 8, 2020 · FedExField · Closing line: Washington −3

Luck index +70 Giants very lucky · −70 Washington

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Giants win 3, Washington win 7.

  1. 1 NYG 30 WAS 13
  2. 2 NYG 24 WAS 16
  3. 3 NYG 13 WAS 9
  4. 4 NYG 28 WAS 30
  5. 5 NYG 27 WAS 31
  6. 6 NYG 9 WAS 17
  7. 7 NYG 23 WAS 34
  8. 8 NYG 13 WAS 28
  9. 9 NYG 24 WAS 44
  10. 10 NYG 18 WAS 44

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Giants win 30% of them, Washington 70%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Giants by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Giants by 17+4.0%
Giants by 9–167.6%
Giants by 1–816.0%
Level after regulation3.8%
Washington by 1–824.3%
Washington by 9–1620.2%
Washington by 17+24.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Giants by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Giants by 5.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Gano, 38 yds made · 91% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 48 yds made · 74% expected
  • G. Gano, 48 yds made · 79% expected
  • G. Gano, 42 yds made · 87% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 44 yds made · 83% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Washington’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 64%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Washington were ahead in it, below while the Giants were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:16 The Giants were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +10% WAS NYG: Field goal
2 Q1 5:26 Washington fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% WAS WAS: Field goal
3 Q1 1:08 Unnecessary Roughness on the Giants (Jabrill Peppers), 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 2 flags in 1128 snaps before, position avg 1 per 510 +5% WAS WAS: Field goal
4 Q2 13:11 D. Hopkins made 48-yard field goalKicks · 74% expected for him, 4 of 9 from 45+ before +6% WAS WAS: Punt
5 Q4 7:29 Offensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Evan Engram), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 3 flags in 910 snaps before, position avg 1 per 276 +7% WAS WAS: Turnover
6 Q4 6:33 The Giants fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% NYG NYG: Punt
7 Q4 6:01 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 253rd & 4th downs · 17% expected +7% WAS NYG: Punt
8 Q4 2:27 Washington were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +26% NYG WAS: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Landon Collins (WAS S), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Dontrelle Inman (WAS WR), out · 0.5 pts
  • Geron Christian (WAS T), out · 0.4 pts
  • Golden Tate (NYG WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Ryan Lewis (NYG DB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Will Hernandez (NYG G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Ryan Lewis (NYG CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Lorenzo Carter (NYG LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Devonta Freeman (NYG RB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Adrian Colbert (NYG DB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Tae Crowder (NYG LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Giants 65% · Washington 35%

Final margin
Giants by 3
Luck in points
2.2 for the Washington
Luck-adjusted margin
Giants by 5.2
Replay with same day's form
Giants 30% · Washington 70% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2020 games · Giants · Washington

More from Week 9 2020