luckadjusted

Week 9 2020 · November 8, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Ravens at Colts, Week 9 2020: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Colts 24–10, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Ravens win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 3.1 points to the Ravens.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q1, 1:28 left): Return touchdown by the Ravens, worth 36 points of win probability to the Ravens.

Final

Baltimore Ravens 24
Indianapolis Colts 10

November 8, 2020 · Lucas Oil Stadium · Closing line: Colts −1

Luck index +54 Ravens lucky · −54 Colts

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ravens win 5, Colts win 5.

  1. 1 BAL 30 IND 13
  2. 2 BAL 43 IND 31
  3. 3 BAL 17 IND 9
  4. 4 BAL 34 IND 28
  5. 5 BAL 23 IND 21
  6. 6 BAL 20 IND 23
  7. 7 BAL 16 IND 21
  8. 8 BAL 17 IND 26
  9. 9 BAL 20 IND 33
  10. 10 BAL 20 IND 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ravens win 46% of them, Colts 54%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ravens by 17+9.2%
Ravens by 9–1613.7%
Ravens by 1–821.8%
Level after regulation5.9%
Colts by 1–822.8%
Colts by 9–1616.1%
Colts by 17+10.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Ravens by 14. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Ravens by 14.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Blankenship, 43 yds made · 85% expected
  • J. Tucker, 48 yds made · 82% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Colts’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 79%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Colts were ahead in it, below while the Ravens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 1:28 The Colts fumbled and the Ravens recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the RavensSpecial teams +36% BAL IND: Punt
2 Q2 8:56 The Ravens converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +7% BAL BAL: Punt
3 Q2 8:29 Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact on the Colts (Julian Blackmon), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 345 snaps before, position avg 1 per 510 +7% BAL BAL: Punt
4 Q2 4:42 Roughing the Passer on the Ravens (Pernell McPhee), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 494 snaps before, position avg 1 per 402 +7% IND IND: Field goal
5 Q2 0:55 The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +7% BAL IND: Field goal
6 Q3 11:12 The Ravens fumbled and the Colts recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +13% IND BAL: Touchdown
7 Q3 5:47 The Ravens converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected +7% BAL BAL: Touchdown
8 Q3 0:34 The Ravens converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +9% BAL BAL: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • T.Y. Hilton (IND WR), out · 1.0 pts
  • Marlon Humphrey (BAL CB), out (IR) · 1.4 pts
  • Ronnie Stanley (BAL T), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Tyre Phillips (BAL G/T), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ravens 98% · Colts 2%

Final margin
Ravens by 14
Luck in points
0.1 for the Colts
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 14.1
Replay with same day's form
Ravens 46% · Colts 54% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2020 games · Ravens · Colts

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