luckadjusted

Week 9 2020 · November 9, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Patriots at Jets, Week 9 2020: who deserved to win?

The Patriots beat the Jets 30–27 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10. The Jets had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 3.3 points to the Jets.

Before kickoff the Patriots were 76% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:03 left): N. Folk made 51-yard field goal, worth 20 points of win probability to the Patriots.

Final

New England Patriots 30
New York Jets 27

November 9, 2020 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Patriots −9.5

Luck index +39 Patriots lucky · −39 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Patriots win 6, Jets win 4.

  1. 1 NE 37 NYJ 16
  2. 2 NE 17 NYJ 3
  3. 3 NE 34 NYJ 24
  4. 4 NE 24 NYJ 17
  5. 5 NE 21 NYJ 17
  6. 6 NE 23 NYJ 21
  7. 7 NE 13 NYJ 16
  8. 8 NE 22 NYJ 28
  9. 9 NE 17 NYJ 28
  10. 10 NE 6 NYJ 24

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Patriots win 61% of them, Jets 39%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Patriots by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Patriots by 17+14.0%
Patriots by 9–1616.9%
Patriots by 1–828.2%
Level after regulation2.6%
Jets by 1–821.3%
Jets by 9–1611.8%
Jets by 17+5.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Patriots by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Patriots by 6.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • S. Castillo, 35 yds made · 93% expected
  • S. Castillo, 50 yds made · 74% expected
  • N. Folk, 45 yds made · 79% expected
  • N. Folk, 29 yds made · 97% expected
  • N. Folk, 51 yds made · 69% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Jets’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 90%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jets were ahead in it, below while the Patriots were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 5:03 The Patriots converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +8% NE NE: Touchdown
2 Q2 2:00 The Patriots converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +7% NE NE: Field goal
3 Q2 1:29 Illegal Shift on the Patriots, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +7% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
4 Q3 1:56 The Jets converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +7% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
5 Q4 9:15 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +7% NYJ NE: Field goal
6 Q4 5:00 Offensive Holding on the Patriots (Jakobi Meyers), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 2 flags in 545 snaps before, position avg 1 per 385 +10% NYJ NYJ: Punt
7 Q4 4:00 The Patriots converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +7% NE NE: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:03 N. Folk made 51-yard field goalKicks · 69% expected for him, 3 of 7 from 45+ before +20% NE –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Quinnen Williams (NYJ DL), out · 0.7 pts
  • Chris Hogan (NYJ WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Bradley McDougald (NYJ S), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Sam Ficken (NYJ K), out · 0.3 pts
  • Sam Darnold (NYJ QB), out, replaced by j.flacco · 0.2 pts
  • Stephon Gilmore (NE CB), out · 1.2 pts
  • Julian Edelman (NE WR), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Lawrence Guy (NE DL), out · 0.4 pts
  • Ja'Whaun Bentley (NE LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Lawrence Guy (NE DT), out · 0.4 pts
  • N'Keal Harry (NE WR), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jermaine Eluemunor (NE OL), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Patriots 76% · Jets 24%

Final margin
Patriots by 3
Luck in points
3.2 for the Jets
Luck-adjusted margin
Patriots by 6.2
Replay with same day's form
Patriots 61% · Jets 39% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2020 games · Patriots · Jets

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