luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 9 2020 · November 9, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Patriots at Jets, Week 9 2020: who deserved to win?

The Patriots beat the Jets 30–27, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10.

Before kickoff the Patriots were 76% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:03 left): N. Folk made a 51-yard field goal, worth 21 points of win probability to the Patriots.

Final

New England Patriots 30
New York Jets 27

November 9, 2020 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Patriots −9.5

Luck index +40 Patriots lucky · −40 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Patriots win 6, Jets win 4.

  1. 1 NE 36 NYJ 13
  2. 2 NE 31 NYJ 14
  3. 3 NE 26 NYJ 14
  4. 4 NE 31 NYJ 23
  5. 5 NE 24 NYJ 19
  6. 6 NE 26 NYJ 24
  7. 7 NE 17 NYJ 19
  8. 8 NE 17 NYJ 23
  9. 9 NE 28 NYJ 38
  10. 10 NE 21 NYJ 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Patriots win 60% of them, Jets 40%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Patriots by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Patriots by 17+13.8%
Patriots by 9–1616.9%
Patriots by 1–828.2%
Level after regulation2.6%
Jets by 1–821.1%
Jets by 9–1612.4%
Jets by 17+5.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.0 points to the Jets: the final margin was Patriots by 3, without the luck Patriots by 4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • S. Castillo, 35 yds made · 94% expected
  • S. Castillo, 50 yds made · 72% expected
  • N. Folk, 45 yds made · 79% expected
  • N. Folk, 29 yds made · 97% expected
  • N. Folk, 51 yds made · 68% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Patriots 6 for 81 yards, Jets 4 for 32 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 12:54 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 7 yards +2% NE +0.6 pts
Q2 10:56 Defensive Pass Interference on the Patriots, 5 yards +1% NYJ +0.3 pts
Q2 3:10 Roughing the Passer on the Jets (Ashtyn Davis), 15 yards, wiping out the play +7% NE +1.8 pts
Q2 1:29 Illegal Shift on the Patriots, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +7% NYJ +1.4 pts
Q2 0:36 Defensive Pass Interference on the Patriots (Jason McCourty), 42 yards +6% NYJ +3.1 pts
Q2 0:25 Illegal Double-Team Block on the Patriots (Jakob Johnson), 9 yards +2% NYJ +0.8 pts
Q4 8:37 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap +6% NE +2.3 pts
Q4 7:53 Offensive Holding on the Patriots, 10 yards +5% NYJ +1.7 pts
Q4 5:39 Defensive Holding on the Jets (Blessuan Austin), 5 yards +4% NE +1.5 pts
Q4 5:00 Offensive Holding on the Patriots (Jakobi Meyers), 10 yards, wiping out the play +10% NYJ +1.7 pts

Patriots penalties, every game · Jets penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Jets’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 90%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jets were ahead in it, below while the Patriots were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 5:03 The Patriots converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +8% NE NE: Touchdown
2 Q2 6:19 The Patriots were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expectedThe Patriots fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% NYJ NE: Field goal
3 Q2 3:10 Roughing the Passer on the Jets (Ashtyn Davis), 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 185 snaps before, position avg 1 per 510 +7% NE NE: Field goal
4 Q2 2:00 The Patriots converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +7% NE NE: Field goal
5 Q2 1:29 Illegal Shift on the Patriots, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +7% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
6 Q3 1:56 The Jets converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +7% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
7 Q4 5:00 Offensive Holding on the Patriots (Jakobi Meyers), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 2 flags in 545 snaps before, position avg 1 per 385 +10% NYJ NYJ: Punt
8 Q4 0:03 N. Folk made a 51-yard field goalKicks · 68% expected for him, 3 of 7 from 45+ before +21% NE –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Quinnen Williams (NYJ DL), out · 0.7 pts
  • Chris Hogan (NYJ WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Bradley McDougald (NYJ S), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Sam Ficken (NYJ K), out · 0.3 pts
  • Sam Darnold (NYJ QB), out, replaced by j.flacco · 0.2 pts
  • Stephon Gilmore (NE CB), out · 1.2 pts
  • Julian Edelman (NE WR), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Lawrence Guy (NE DL), out · 0.4 pts
  • Ja'Whaun Bentley (NE LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Lawrence Guy (NE DT), out · 0.4 pts
  • N'Keal Harry (NE WR), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jermaine Eluemunor (NE OL), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Patriots 71% · Jets 29%

Final margin
Patriots by 3
Luck in points
1.0 for the Jets
Luck-adjusted margin
Patriots by 4.0
Replay with same day's form
Patriots 60% · Jets 40% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2020 games · Patriots · Jets

More from Week 9 2020