luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 9 2020 · November 8, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Steelers at Cowboys, Week 9 2020: who deserved to win?

The Steelers beat the Cowboys 24–19, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10. The Cowboys had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 15 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Before kickoff the Steelers were 85% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:04 left): the Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 4, worth 21 points of win probability to the Steelers.

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers 24
Dallas Cowboys 19

November 8, 2020 · AT&T Stadium · Closing line: Steelers −14

Luck index +22 Steelers about even · −22 Cowboys

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Steelers win 8, Cowboys win 2.

  1. 1 PIT 37 DAL 9
  2. 2 PIT 41 DAL 20
  3. 3 PIT 34 DAL 17
  4. 4 PIT 20 DAL 6
  5. 5 PIT 36 DAL 26
  6. 6 PIT 27 DAL 20
  7. 7 PIT 17 DAL 13
  8. 8 PIT 33 DAL 31
  9. 9 PIT 24 DAL 27
  10. 10 PIT 13 DAL 26

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Steelers win 78% of them, Cowboys 22%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Steelers by 17+29.3%
Steelers by 9–1621.0%
Steelers by 1–826.5%
Level after regulation2.7%
Cowboys by 1–812.3%
Cowboys by 9–165.9%
Cowboys by 17+2.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.2 points to the Steelers: the final margin was Steelers by 5, without the luck Cowboys by 2.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Zuerlein, 38 yds made · 91% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 44 yds made · 83% expected
  • C. Boswell, 59 yds made · 65% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 45 yds made · 82% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 39 yds made · 90% expected
  • C. Boswell, 43 yds made · 87% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Steelers 3 for 16 yards, Cowboys 7 for 70 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 6:23 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Cowboys (Darian Thompson), 10 yards +1% PIT +0.9 pts
Q2 1:10 Illegal Formation on the Cowboys, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +6% PIT +2.1 pts
Q2 0:02 False Start on the Steelers (Cameron Heyward), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DAL +0.3 pts
Q3 0:48 Defensive Offside on the Cowboys (Randy Gregory), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PIT +0.5 pts
Q3 0:42 Offensive Holding on the Steelers (Eric Ebron), 10 yards +3% DAL +1.2 pts
Q4 15:00 Unnecessary Roughness on the Cowboys (Randy Gregory), 15 yards +3% PIT +1.3 pts
Q4 11:54 Illegal Blindside Block on the Steelers (Terrell Edmunds), 1 yard 0% DAL +0.1 pts
Q4 8:46 Illegal Contact on the Cowboys (Jaylon Smith), 5 yards, wiping out the play +17% PIT +1.7 pts
Q4 8:36 Unnecessary Roughness on the Cowboys (Leighton Vander Esch), 15 yards +13% PIT +1.8 pts
Q4 4:03 Roughing the Passer on the Cowboys (Jaylon Smith), 15 yards +10% PIT +1.6 pts

Steelers penalties, every game · Cowboys penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Cowboys’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 90%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cowboys were ahead in it, below while the Steelers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 11:30 The Steelers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected +11% DAL PIT: Punt
2 Q4 8:46 Illegal Contact on the Cowboys (Jaylon Smith), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 9 flags in 1681 snaps before, position avg 1 per 395 +17% PIT PIT: Field goal
3 Q4 8:36 Unnecessary Roughness on the Cowboys (Leighton Vander Esch), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 750 snaps before, position avg 1 per 395 +13% PIT PIT: Field goal
4 Q4 7:15 C. Boswell made a 43-yard field goalKicks · 87% expected for him +9% DAL PIT: Touchdown
5 Q4 4:03 Roughing the Passer on the Cowboys (Jaylon Smith), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 9 flags in 1681 snaps before, position avg 1 per 395 +10% PIT PIT: Touchdown
6 Q4 0:43 The Steelers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected +11% DAL –
7 Q4 0:23 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +10% DAL DAL: End of game
8 Q4 0:04 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +21% PIT –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Dak Prescott (DAL QB), out (IR), replaced by g.gilbert · 8.0 pts
  • Tyron Smith (DAL T), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Brandon Knight (DAL T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Chidobe Awuzie (DAL CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Joe Thomas (DAL LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Chris Jones (DAL P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Trysten Hill (DAL DT), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Mike Hilton (PIT CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Zach Banner (PIT T), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Steelers 84% · Cowboys 16%

Final margin
Steelers by 5
Luck in points
7.2 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 2.2
Replay with same day's form
Steelers 78% · Cowboys 22% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2020 games · Steelers · Cowboys

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