luckadjusted

Week 9 2020 · November 8, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Steelers at Cowboys, Week 9 2020: who deserved to win?

The Steelers beat the Cowboys 24–19 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10. The Cowboys had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 3.2 points to the Cowboys.

Before kickoff the Steelers were 85% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:04 left): the Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 4, worth 37 points of win probability to the Steelers.

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers 24
Dallas Cowboys 19

November 8, 2020 · AT&T Stadium · Closing line: Steelers −14

Luck index +20 Steelers about even · −20 Cowboys

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Steelers win 8, Cowboys win 2.

  1. 1 PIT 34 DAL 7
  2. 2 PIT 30 DAL 10
  3. 3 PIT 31 DAL 14
  4. 4 PIT 27 DAL 13
  5. 5 PIT 24 DAL 13
  6. 6 PIT 29 DAL 21
  7. 7 PIT 20 DAL 16
  8. 8 PIT 25 DAL 23
  9. 9 PIT 16 DAL 19
  10. 10 PIT 27 DAL 43

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Steelers win 80% of them, Cowboys 20%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Steelers by 17+29.8%
Steelers by 9–1622.5%
Steelers by 1–825.7%
Level after regulation2.4%
Cowboys by 1–811.4%
Cowboys by 9–165.9%
Cowboys by 17+2.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Steelers by 5. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Cowboys by 7.5.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Zuerlein, 38 yds made · 90% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 44 yds made · 83% expected
  • C. Boswell, 59 yds made · 62% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 45 yds made · 81% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 39 yds made · 89% expected
  • C. Boswell, 43 yds made · 86% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Cowboys’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 90%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cowboys were ahead in it, below while the Steelers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 11:30 The Steelers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +11% DAL PIT: Punt
2 Q4 11:54 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 33% expectedIllegal Blindside Block on the Steelers (Terrell Edmunds), 1 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 1528 snaps before, position avg 1 per 510 +11% PIT DAL: Punt
3 Q4 8:46 Illegal Contact on the Cowboys (Jaylon Smith), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 9 flags in 1681 snaps before, position avg 1 per 395 +17% PIT PIT: Field goal
4 Q4 8:36 Unnecessary Roughness on the Cowboys (Leighton Vander Esch), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 750 snaps before, position avg 1 per 395 +13% PIT PIT: Field goal
5 Q4 4:03 Roughing the Passer on the Cowboys (Jaylon Smith), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 9 flags in 1681 snaps before, position avg 1 per 395 +10% PIT PIT: Touchdown
6 Q4 1:45 The Cowboys were stopped on 4th & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +13% PIT DAL: End of game
7 Q4 0:43 The Steelers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +11% DAL –
8 Q4 0:04 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +37% PIT –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Dak Prescott (DAL QB), out (IR), replaced by g.gilbert · 8.0 pts
  • Tyron Smith (DAL T), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Brandon Knight (DAL T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Chidobe Awuzie (DAL CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Joe Thomas (DAL LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Chris Jones (DAL P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Trysten Hill (DAL DT), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Mike Hilton (PIT CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Zach Banner (PIT T), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Steelers 67% · Cowboys 33%

Final margin
Steelers by 5
Luck in points
12.5 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 7.5
Replay with same day's form
Steelers 80% · Cowboys 20% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2020 games · Steelers · Cowboys

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