luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 9 2020 · November 8, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Lions at Vikings, Week 9 2020: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Lions 34–20, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Vikings were 59% favorites.

Final

Detroit Lions 20
Minnesota Vikings 34

November 8, 2020 · U.S. Bank Stadium · Closing line: Vikings −3

Luck index +29 Vikings lucky · −29 Lions

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Lions win 3, Vikings win 7.

  1. 1 DET 56 MIN 38
  2. 2 DET 38 MIN 30
  3. 3 DET 30 MIN 27
  4. 4 DET 33 MIN 34
  5. 5 DET 23 MIN 27
  6. 6 DET 30 MIN 37
  7. 7 DET 28 MIN 38
  8. 8 DET 27 MIN 42
  9. 9 DET 21 MIN 43
  10. 10 DET 16 MIN 47

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Lions win 29% of them, Vikings 71%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Lions by 17+5.5%
Lions by 9–167.7%
Lions by 1–814.4%
Level after regulation3.6%
Vikings by 1–823.9%
Vikings by 9–1619.7%
Vikings by 17+25.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.1 points to the Lions: the final margin was Vikings by 14, without the luck Vikings by 16.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Prater, 46 yds missed · 79% expected
  • M. Prater, 23 yds made · 98% expected
  • M. Prater, 45 yds made · 79% expected
  • Extra point missed · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Lions 3 for 37 yards, Vikings 9 for 69 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:32 False Start on the Lions, 4 yards · pre-snap +5% MIN +0.7 pts
Q2 5:22 Delay of Game on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DET +0.6 pts
Q2 5:11 Defensive Pass Interference on the Vikings, 7 yards 0% MIN +0.5 pts
Q3 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Vikings (C.J. Ham), 10 yards +1% DET +0.9 pts
Q3 13:42 Delay of Game on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% DET +0.6 pts
Q3 9:17 Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Amani Oruwariye), 18 yards +2% MIN +2.4 pts
Q3 6:11 Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact on the Vikings (Harrison Smith), 15 yards 0% DET +1.8 pts
Q4 10:42 Unnecessary Roughness on the Lions (Duron Harmon), 15 yards +1% MIN +1.4 pts
Q4 9:21 Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards 0% DET +1.5 pts
Q4 7:07 Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 2 yards 0% DET +0.2 pts
Q4 7:07 Delay of Game on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DET +0.6 pts
Q4 4:34 Offensive Holding on the Vikings (Tyler Conklin), 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% DET +2.6 pts

Lions penalties, every game · Vikings penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Vikings’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Vikings were ahead in it, below while the Lions were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:32 False Start on the Lions, 4 yardsPre-snap flags +5% MIN MIN: Touchdown
2 Q1 4:54 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +5% MIN DET: Missed field goal
3 Q1 4:11 M. Prater missed a 46-yard field goalKicks · 79% expected for him, 13 of 21 from 45+ before +6% MIN DET: Field goal
4 Q2 7:28 The Vikings converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +4% MIN MIN: Punt
5 Q3 12:12 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +3% MIN DET: Punt
6 Q3 11:14 The Vikings converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +2% MIN MIN: Touchdown
7 Q3 9:17 Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Amani Oruwariye), 18 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 796 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 +2% MIN MIN: Touchdown
8 Q3 3:09 Blocked punt by the LionsSpecial teams +4% DET DET: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Cameron Dantzler (MIN CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Anthony Barr (MIN LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Mike Hughes (MIN CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Kenny Golladay (DET WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Trey Flowers (DET DE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Tracy Walker (DET DB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Darryl Roberts (DET CB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Lions 0% · Vikings 100%

Final margin
Vikings by 14
Luck in points
2.1 for the Lions
Luck-adjusted margin
Vikings by 16.1
Replay with same day's form
Lions 29% · Vikings 71% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2020 games · Lions · Vikings

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