2020 season · final
Minnesota Vikings, 2020: game by game
The Vikings went 7–9 in 2020; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 8.7 wins. Luck cost them 1.7: the 7th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 6–4.
Every game
How often the Vikings win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Packers | L 34–43 | 70% | −70 |
| Week 2 | @ Colts | L 11–28 | 23% | −23 |
| Week 3 | vs Titans | L 30–31 | 60% | −60 |
| Week 4 | @ Texans | W 31–23 | 87% | +13 |
| Week 5 | @ Seahawks | L 26–27 | 20% | −20 |
| Week 6 | vs Falcons | L 23–40 | 91% | −91 |
| Week 8 | @ Packers | W 28–22 | 74% | +26 |
| Week 9 | vs Lions | W 34–20 | 71% | +29 |
| Week 10 | @ Bears | W 19–13 | 90% | +10 |
| Week 11 | vs Cowboys | L 28–31 | 45% | −45 |
| Week 12 | vs Panthers | W 28–27 | 33% | +67 |
| Week 13 | vs Jaguars | W 27–24 | 74% | +26 |
| Week 14 | @ Buccaneers | L 14–26 | 18% | −18 |
| Week 15 | vs Bears | L 27–33 | 61% | −61 |
| Week 16 | @ Saints | L 33–52 | 4% | −4 |
| Week 17 | @ Lions | W 37–35 | 45% | +55 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Vikings’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.04 | +1.6 |
| Rest | −0.02 | −1.2 |
| Injuries | −0.05 | −0.2 |
| Kicks | −0.08 | −25.0 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.26 | −4.5 |
| Judgment calls | −0.30 | −6.1 |