2020 season · final
Minnesota Vikings, 2020: game by game
The Vikings went 7–9 in 2020; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 8.5 wins. Luck cost them 1.5: the 9th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 6–4.
Every game
How often the Vikings win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Packers | L 34–43 | 69% | −69 |
| Week 2 | @ Colts | L 11–28 | 25% | −25 |
| Week 3 | vs Titans | L 30–31 | 60% | −60 |
| Week 4 | @ Texans | W 31–23 | 88% | +12 |
| Week 5 | @ Seahawks | L 26–27 | 20% | −20 |
| Week 6 | vs Falcons | L 23–40 | 90% | −90 |
| Week 8 | @ Packers | W 28–22 | 70% | +30 |
| Week 9 | vs Lions | W 34–20 | 70% | +30 |
| Week 10 | @ Bears | W 19–13 | 91% | +9 |
| Week 11 | vs Cowboys | L 28–31 | 44% | −44 |
| Week 12 | vs Panthers | W 28–27 | 29% | +71 |
| Week 13 | vs Jaguars | W 27–24 | 77% | +23 |
| Week 14 | @ Buccaneers | L 14–26 | 15% | −15 |
| Week 15 | vs Bears | L 27–33 | 57% | −57 |
| Week 16 | @ Saints | L 33–52 | 4% | −4 |
| Week 17 | @ Lions | W 37–35 | 46% | +54 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Vikings’ favor.
| Kind | Points | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd & 4th downs | +1.6 | +0.10 |
| Injuries | −0.1 | 0.00 |
| Rest | −1.2 | −0.07 |
| Fumble bounces | −3.1 | −0.20 |
| Judgment calls | −12.8 | −0.80 |
| Kicks | −24.8 | −1.55 |