One-score games · decided by 8 points or fewer

The Vikings in one-score games

The Vikings are 4–1 in one-score games in 2026 so far, after 5–4 in 2025. Replayed with the same day’s form, they win 2.7 of those 5. Since 2019: 49–30 in 79 one-score games, 42.8 wins in replays.

A good record in close games looks like clutch. It rarely lasts: from 2019 to 2025, a team’s win rate in one-score games carried into the next season at a correlation of 0.12, against 0.39 for its overall record. How often a team wins those games in replays says what its play was worth.

Close-game luck by season

One-score wins minus how many of those games the Vikings win in replays (regular season).

2026 +1.3 4–1

2025 +1.4 5–4

2024 +1.8 9–1

2023 −2.5 6–8

2022 +4.6 11–0

2021 +0.7 6–8

2020 +0.1 6–4

2019 −1.2 2–4

Season	One-score record	Replay wins in those games	Close-game luck	Overall record
2026	4–1	2.7 of 5	+1.3	6–1
2025	5–4	3.6 of 9	+1.4	9–8
2024	9–1	7.2 of 10	+1.8	14–3
2023	6–8	8.5 of 14	−2.5	7–10
2022	11–0	6.4 of 11	+4.6	13–4
2021	6–8	5.3 of 14	+0.7	8–9
2020	6–4	5.9 of 10	+0.1	7–9
2019	2–4	3.2 of 6	−1.2	10–6

2026 one-score games

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 2	@ Bears	W 9–3	53%	+47
Week 3	@ Buccaneers	W 23–16	73%	+27
Week 4	vs Dolphins	W 15–10	68%	+32
Week 7	vs Colts	W 16–10	69%	+31
Week 8	@ Lions	L 15–19	12%	−12

Every team’s one-score record, 2026 · Minnesota Vikings, every season