One-score games · decided by 8 points or fewer

The Vikings in one-score games

The Vikings are 1–0 in one-score games in 2026 so far, after 5–4 in 2025. Replayed with the same day’s form, they win 0.5 of those 1. Since 2019: 46–29 in 75 one-score games, 41.1 wins in replays.

A good record in close games looks like clutch. It rarely lasts: from 2019 to 2025, a team’s win rate in one-score games carried into the next season at a correlation of 0.12, against 0.39 for its overall record. How often a team wins those games in replays says what its play was worth.

Close-game luck by season

One-score wins minus how many of those games the Vikings win in replays (regular season).

2026 +0.5 1–0

2025 +0.8 5–4

2024 +1.9 9–1

2023 −2.3 6–8

2022 +4.5 11–0

2021 +0.6 6–8

2020 +0.2 6–4

2019 −1.3 2–4

Season	One-score record	Replay wins in those games	Close-game luck	Overall record
2026	1–0	0.5 of 1	+0.5	2–0
2025	5–4	4.2 of 9	+0.8	9–8
2024	9–1	7.1 of 10	+1.9	14–3
2023	6–8	8.3 of 14	−2.3	7–10
2022	11–0	6.5 of 11	+4.5	13–4
2021	6–8	5.4 of 14	+0.6	8–9
2020	6–4	5.8 of 10	+0.2	7–9
2019	2–4	3.3 of 6	−1.3	10–6

2026 one-score games

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 2	@ Bears	W 9–3	55%	+45

Every team’s one-score record, 2026 · Minnesota Vikings, every season