luckadjusted

2026 season · in progress

Minnesota Vikings, 2026: game by game

The Vikings went 2–0 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 1.0 wins. Luck added 1.0: the luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 1–0.

Every game

How often the Vikings win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 vs Packers W 39–22 45% +55
Week 2 @ Bears W 9–3 55% +45

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Vikings’ favor.

KindPointsPer game
Judgment calls+19.9+9.95
3rd & 4th downs+3.9+1.96
Drops+3.3+1.65
Kicks+3.1+1.56
Injuries+2.1+1.06
Fumble bounces+1.6+0.79