2024 season · final
Minnesota Vikings, 2024: game by game
The Vikings went 14–3 in 2024; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 12.1 wins. Luck added 1.9: the 7th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 9–1.
Playoffs: 0–1, replay wins 0.2.
Every game
How often the Vikings win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Giants | W 28–6 | 97% | +3 |
| Week 2 | vs 49ers | W 23–17 | 49% | +51 |
| Week 3 | vs Texans | W 34–7 | 85% | +15 |
| Week 4 | @ Packers | W 31–29 | 74% | +26 |
| Week 5 | vs Jets | W 23–17 | 90% | +10 |
| Week 7 | vs Lions | L 29–31 | 52% | −52 |
| Week 8 | @ Rams | L 20–30 | 49% | −49 |
| Week 9 | vs Colts | W 21–13 | 90% | +10 |
| Week 10 | @ Jaguars | W 12–7 | 78% | +22 |
| Week 11 | @ Titans | W 23–13 | 92% | +8 |
| Week 12 | @ Bears | W 30–27 | 89% | +11 |
| Week 13 | vs Cardinals | W 23–22 | 56% | +44 |
| Week 14 | vs Falcons | W 42–21 | 83% | +17 |
| Week 15 | vs Bears | W 30–12 | 83% | +17 |
| Week 16 | @ Seahawks | W 27–24 | 61% | +39 |
| Week 17 | vs Packers | W 27–25 | 78% | +22 |
| Week 18 | @ Lions | L 9–31 | 7% | −7 |
| Wild Card | vs Rams | L 9–27 | 19% | −19 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Vikings’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Judgment calls | +0.50 | +13.7 |
| Kicks | +0.15 | +9.0 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.11 | +6.4 |
| Injuries | +0.09 | +3.6 |
| Rest | +0.07 | +2.4 |
| Drops | −0.04 | +3.1 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.38 | −6.1 |