2024 season · final
Minnesota Vikings, 2024: game by game
The Vikings went 14–3 in 2024; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 11.7 wins. Luck added 2.3: the 6th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 9–1.
Playoffs: 0–1, replay wins 0.3.
Every game
How often the Vikings win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Giants | W 28–6 | 96% | +4 |
| Week 2 | vs 49ers | W 23–17 | 47% | +53 |
| Week 3 | vs Texans | W 34–7 | 84% | +16 |
| Week 4 | @ Packers | W 31–29 | 72% | +28 |
| Week 5 | vs Jets | W 23–17 | 90% | +10 |
| Week 7 | vs Lions | L 29–31 | 68% | −68 |
| Week 8 | @ Rams | L 20–30 | 32% | −32 |
| Week 9 | vs Colts | W 21–13 | 90% | +10 |
| Week 10 | @ Jaguars | W 12–7 | 84% | +16 |
| Week 11 | @ Titans | W 23–13 | 84% | +16 |
| Week 12 | @ Bears | W 30–27 | 79% | +21 |
| Week 13 | vs Cardinals | W 23–22 | 38% | +62 |
| Week 14 | vs Falcons | W 42–21 | 71% | +29 |
| Week 15 | vs Bears | W 30–12 | 84% | +16 |
| Week 16 | @ Seahawks | W 27–24 | 61% | +39 |
| Week 17 | vs Packers | W 27–25 | 81% | +19 |
| Week 18 | @ Lions | L 9–31 | 8% | −8 |
| Wild Card | @ Rams | L 9–27 | 34% | −34 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Vikings’ favor.
| Kind | Points | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Judgment calls | +28.1 | +1.65 |
| Kicks | +9.4 | +0.55 |
| Drops | +8.8 | +0.52 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +7.2 | +0.42 |
| Injuries | +4.9 | +0.29 |
| Rest | +2.4 | +0.14 |
| Fumble bounces | −4.7 | −0.28 |