luckadjusted

Week 14 2024 · December 8, 2024

Falcons at Vikings, Week 14 2024: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Falcons 42–21 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Falcons had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 3.4 points to the Falcons.

Before kickoff the Vikings were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 3:36 left): the Vikings converted 3rd & 8, worth 18 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Final

Atlanta Falcons 21
Minnesota Vikings 42

December 8, 2024 · U.S. Bank Stadium · Closing line: Vikings −6

Luck index +29 Vikings lucky · −29 Falcons

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Falcons win 3, Vikings win 7.

  1. 1 ATL 29 MIN 14
  2. 2 ATL 38 MIN 30
  3. 3 ATL 30 MIN 27
  4. 4 ATL 21 MIN 23
  5. 5 ATL 33 MIN 38
  6. 6 ATL 34 MIN 41
  7. 7 ATL 27 MIN 37
  8. 8 ATL 20 MIN 34
  9. 9 ATL 12 MIN 31
  10. 10 ATL 14 MIN 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Falcons win 29% of them, Vikings 71%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 21.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Falcons by 17+3.5%
Falcons by 9–167.6%
Falcons by 1–814.9%
Level after regulation4.3%
Vikings by 1–825.3%
Vikings by 9–1621.4%
Vikings by 17+23.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Vikings by 21. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Vikings by 7.5.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Y. Koo, 20 yds made · 100% expected
  • W. Reichard, 47 yds missed · 81% expected
  • Y. Koo, 29 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Vikings’ chance of winning

As low as 29% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Vikings were ahead in it, below while the Falcons were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:38 The Falcons converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +13% ATL ATL: Touchdown
2 Q2 0:59 The Falcons converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +12% ATL ATL: Field goal
3 Q3 10:01 W. Reichard missed 47-yard field goalKicks · 81% expected for him, 5 of 6 from 45+ before +9% ATL MIN: Touchdown
4 Q3 9:12 The Falcons converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +12% ATL ATL: Field goal
5 Q3 7:45 The Falcons converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +12% ATL ATL: Field goal
6 Q3 3:36 The Vikings converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +18% MIN MIN: Touchdown
7 Q3 0:39 The Falcons’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedFalse Start on the Vikings, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +10% ATL ATL: Touchdown
8 Q4 13:04 The Vikings converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +17% MIN MIN: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Stephon Gilmore (MIN CB), out · 1.2 pts
  • Christian Darrisaw (MIN T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Patrick Jones II (MIN LB), out · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Falcons 27% · Vikings 73%

Final margin
Vikings by 21
Luck in points
13.5 for the Vikings
Luck-adjusted margin
Vikings by 7.5
Replay with same day's form
Falcons 29% · Vikings 71% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2024 games · Falcons · Vikings

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