Week 14 2024 · December 8, 2024
Falcons at Vikings, Week 14 2024: who deserved to win?
The Vikings beat the Falcons 42–21, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Vikings win 8 of 10.
Before kickoff the Vikings were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 13:04 left): the Vikings converted 3rd & 5, worth 12 points of win probability to the Vikings.
Final
 Atlanta Falcons | 21 |
|---|---|
 Minnesota Vikings | 42 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +17 Vikings about even · −17 Falcons
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Falcons win 2, Vikings win 8.
- 1 ATL 48 MIN 36
- 2 ATL 27 MIN 24
- 3 ATL 31 MIN 34
- 4 ATL 12 MIN 17
- 5 ATL 13 MIN 21
- 6 ATL 33 MIN 45
- 7 ATL 24 MIN 38
- 8 ATL 20 MIN 38
- 9 ATL 28 MIN 50
- 10 ATL 19 MIN 49
Your call
Did the Vikings earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Falcons win 17% of them, Vikings 83%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 21.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Falcons by 17+ | 1.3% |
| Falcons by 9–16 | 4.3% |
| Falcons by 1–8 | 10.4% |
| Level after regulation | 1.2% |
| Vikings by 1–8 | 25.3% |
| Vikings by 9–16 | 23.3% |
| Vikings by 17+ | 34.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- Y. Koo, 20 yds made · 99% expected
- W. Reichard, 47 yds missed · 80% expected
- Y. Koo, 29 yds made · 97% expected
Penalties: Falcons 12 for 127 yards, Vikings 6 for 35 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 8:29 | False Start on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% MIN +0.6 pts |
| Q2 6:32 | Defensive Offside on the Vikings (C.J. Ham), 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% ATL +0.6 pts |
| Q2 6:26 | Delay of Game on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% MIN +0.6 pts |
| Q2 4:32 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Falcons (Mike Hughes), 47 yards | +8% MIN +3.0 pts |
| Q2 3:30 | Defensive Holding on the Falcons (Kentavius Street), 5 yards | +7% MIN +2.2 pts |
| Q2 2:01 | Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards | +4% MIN +1.6 pts |
| Q2 1:46 | Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +6% MIN +1.5 pts |
| Q3 11:11 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (Jordan Addison), 10 yards | +3% ATL +1.5 pts |
| Q3 7:02 | Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards | +3% MIN +0.9 pts |
| Q3 0:39 | False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% ATL +0.6 pts |
| Q3 0:13 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Falcons (Grady Jarrett), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MIN +0.5 pts |
| Q4 8:54 | Illegal Shift on the Vikings (Sam Darnold), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ATL +0.9 pts |
| Q4 6:26 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Falcons (Eddie Goldman), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% MIN +0.4 pts |
| Q4 5:46 | False Start on the Vikings (Johnny Mundt), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ATL +0.9 pts |
| Q4 4:13 | Face Mask on the Falcons (Lorenzo Carter), 15 yards | 0% MIN +1.2 pts |
| Q4 2:38 | False Start on the Falcons (Kyle Pitts), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MIN +0.4 pts |
| Q4 2:38 | Defensive Offside on the Vikings (Brian Asamoah), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | 0% MIN +0.1 pts |
| Q4 2:00 | False Start on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MIN +0.7 pts |
Falcons penalties, every game · Vikings penalties, every game · All teams, 2024
When it happened
Vikings’ chance of winning
As low as 29% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:38 | The Falcons converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +9% ATL | ATL: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 4:32 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Falcons (Mike Hughes), 47 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 3204 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 | +8% MIN | MIN: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 0:59 | The Falcons converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +8% ATL | ATL: Field goal |
| 4 | Q3 10:01 | W. Reichard missed a 47-yard field goalKicks · 80% expected for him, 5 of 6 from 45+ before | +9% ATL | MIN: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 9:12 | The Falcons converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 23% expected | +11% ATL | ATL: Field goal |
| 6 | Q3 3:36 | The Vikings converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +8% MIN | MIN: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 0:39 | The Falcons’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedFalse Start on the Vikings, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +10% ATL | ATL: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 13:04 | The Vikings converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +12% MIN | MIN: Touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Stephon Gilmore (MIN CB), out · 1.2 pts
- Christian Darrisaw (MIN T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
- Patrick Jones II (MIN LB), out · 0.1 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Falcons 4% · Vikings 96%
- Final margin
- Vikings by 21
- Luck in points
- 10.4 for the Vikings
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Vikings by 10.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Falcons 17% · Vikings 83% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2024 games · 
Falcons · 
Vikings
More from Week 14 2024
- Packers at Lions DET 34–31 · replay 44% for the winner
- Panthers at Eagles PHI 22–16 · replay 79% for the winner
- Browns at Steelers PIT 27–14 · replay 94% for the winner
- Jaguars at Titans JAX 10–6 · replay 72% for the winner
- Raiders at Buccaneers TB 28–13 · replay 96% for the winner
- Saints at Giants NO 14–11 · replay 91% for the winner
- Jets at Dolphins MIA 32–26 · replay 51% for the winner
- Seahawks at Cardinals SEA 30–18 · replay 77% for the winner
- Bills at Rams LA 44–42 · replay 34% for the winner
- Bears at 49ers SF 38–13 · replay 99% for the winner
- Chargers at Chiefs KC 19–17 · replay 80% for the winner
- Bengals at Cowboys CIN 27–20 · replay 91% for the winner