luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

2024 NFL season · December 5, 2024–December 9

Week 14 2024: who deserved to win

1 of 13 winners was behind in the replays. The biggest heist: the Rams beat the Bills 44–42 in a game they win 34% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 14 2024 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 2 of 3 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Rams 44–42 vs Bills 40% 34% Lucky
Jaguars 10–6 @ Titans 41% 72% Deserved
Seahawks 30–18 @ Cardinals 41% 77% Deserved

Week 14 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Rams W 44–42 vs Bills 34% +66
2 Lions W 34–31 vs Packers 44% +56
3 Dolphins W 32–26 vs Jets 51% +49
4 Jaguars W 10–6 @ Titans 72% +28
5 Seahawks W 30–18 @ Cardinals 77% +24
6 Eagles W 22–16 vs Panthers 79% +21
7 Chiefs W 19–17 vs Chargers 80% +20
8 Vikings W 42–21 vs Falcons 83% +17
9 Bengals W 27–20 @ Cowboys 91% +9
10 Saints W 14–11 @ Giants 91% +9
11 Steelers W 27–14 vs Browns 94% +6
12 Buccaneers W 28–13 vs Raiders 96% +4
13 49ers W 38–13 vs Bears 99% +1
14 Bears L 13–38 @ 49ers 1% −1
15 Raiders L 13–28 @ Buccaneers 4% −4
16 Browns L 14–27 @ Steelers 6% −6
17 Giants L 11–14 vs Saints 9% −9
18 Cowboys L 20–27 vs Bengals 9% −9
19 Falcons L 21–42 @ Vikings 17% −17
20 Chargers L 17–19 @ Chiefs 20% −20
21 Panthers L 16–22 @ Eagles 21% −21
22 Cardinals L 18–30 vs Seahawks 24% −24
23 Titans L 6–10 vs Jaguars 28% −28
24 Jets L 26–32 @ Dolphins 49% −49
25 Packers L 31–34 @ Lions 56% −56
26 Bills L 42–44 @ Rams 66% −66