luckadjusted

Week 14 2024 · December 9, 2024

Bengals at Cowboys, Week 14 2024: who deserved to win?

The Bengals beat the Cowboys 27–20, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Bengals win 9 of 10. The Cowboys had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 5.9 points to the Cowboys.

Before kickoff the Bengals were 64% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 3:18 left): Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 18 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Final

Cincinnati Bengals 27
Dallas Cowboys 20

December 9, 2024 · AT&T Stadium · Closing line: Bengals −5

Luck index +11 Bengals about even · −11 Cowboys

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bengals win 9, Cowboys win 1.

  1. 1 CIN 45 DAL 13
  2. 2 CIN 45 DAL 20
  3. 3 CIN 41 DAL 20
  4. 4 CIN 24 DAL 7
  5. 5 CIN 34 DAL 20
  6. 6 CIN 31 DAL 20
  7. 7 CIN 31 DAL 24
  8. 8 CIN 12 DAL 7
  9. 9 CIN 19 DAL 17
  10. 10 CIN 19 DAL 26

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bengals win 89% of them, Cowboys 11%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bengals by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bengals by 17+50.9%
Bengals by 9–1620.5%
Bengals by 1–817.2%
Level after regulation1.7%
Cowboys by 1–86.6%
Cowboys by 9–162.5%
Cowboys by 17+0.6%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Bengals by 7. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Bengals by 1.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Aubrey, 35 yds made · 95% expected
  • C. York, 37 yds made · 91% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 47 yds made · 87% expected
  • C. York, 29 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Cowboys’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 76%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cowboys were ahead in it, below while the Bengals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 5:34 The Bengals converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +13% CIN CIN: Touchdown
2 Q3 8:22 The Bengals converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +8% CIN CIN: Turnover
3 Q3 1:56 Unnecessary Roughness on the Cowboys (Luke Schoonmaker), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 1028 snaps before, position avg 1 per 280 +7% CIN CIN: Field goal
4 Q4 7:32 A. Iosivas dropped a catchable passDrops · 4 drops on 47 catchable balls before this +10% DAL CIN: Punt
5 Q4 5:41 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Bengals, 10 yardsJudgment calls +9% DAL DAL: Turnover on downs
6 Q4 3:24 Offensive Holding on the Bengals (Andrei Iosivas), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 1096 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 +8% DAL DAL: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 3:18 Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +18% DAL DAL: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 2:00 The Cowboys fumbled and the Bengals recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +11% CIN DAL: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Dak Prescott (DAL QB), out (IR), replaced by c.rush · 6.9 pts
  • Zack Martin (DAL G), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Tyler Guyton (DAL T), out · 0.4 pts
  • Caelen Carson (DAL CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jalen Brooks (DAL WR), out · 0.3 pts
  • Logan Wilson (CIN LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Evan McPherson (CIN K), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Sheldon Rankins (CIN DT), out · 0.3 pts
  • Zack Moss (CIN RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bengals 90% · Cowboys 10%

Final margin
Bengals by 7
Luck in points
5.7 for the Bengals
Luck-adjusted margin
Bengals by 1.3
Replay with same day's form
Bengals 89% · Cowboys 11% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2024 games · Bengals · Cowboys

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