luckadjusted

Week 14 2024 · December 8, 2024

Bills at Rams, Week 14 2024: who deserved to win?

The Rams beat the Bills 44–42, but the Bills played well enough to win it: they take 6 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 4.6 points to the Rams.

Before kickoff the Bills were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 12:38 left): Blocked punt by the Rams, worth 16 points of win probability to the Rams.

Final

Buffalo Bills 42
Los Angeles Rams 44

December 8, 2024 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Bills −3.5

Luck index +60 Rams very lucky · −60 Bills

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bills win 6, Rams win 4.

  1. 1 BUF 30 LA 6
  2. 2 BUF 20 LA 3
  3. 3 BUF 41 LA 28
  4. 4 BUF 43 LA 35
  5. 5 BUF 35 LA 30
  6. 6 BUF 22 LA 20
  7. 7 BUF 17 LA 19
  8. 8 BUF 21 LA 27
  9. 9 BUF 17 LA 27
  10. 10 BUF 10 LA 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bills win 60% of them, Rams 40%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Rams by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bills by 17+12.5%
Bills by 9–1617.2%
Bills by 1–829.1%
Level after regulation2.5%
Rams by 1–821.8%
Rams by 9–1610.9%
Rams by 17+6.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Rams by 2. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Rams by 0.6.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Karty, 22 yds made · 98% expected
  • Extra point missed · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Rams’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Rams were ahead in it, below while the Bills were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:20 The Rams converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +9% LA LA: Touchdown
2 Q1 7:46 Roughing the Passer on the Rams, 15 yardsJudgment calls +6% BUF BUF: Touchdown
3 Q2 13:40 J. Karty made 22-yard field goalKicks · 98% expected for him +11% BUF LA: Opp touchdown
4 Q2 12:38 Blocked punt by the RamsSpecial teams +16% LA LA: Opp touchdown
5 Q3 4:04 The Bills converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +9% BUF BUF: Touchdown
6 Q4 5:54 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bills, 5 yardsJudgment calls +6% LA LA: Touchdown
7 Q4 3:53 The Rams converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +9% LA LA: Touchdown
8 Q4 1:02 Unnecessary Roughness on the Bills, 15 yardsJudgment calls +11% LA LA: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Troy Reeder (LA LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Dalton Kincaid (BUF TE), out · 0.8 pts
  • Keon Coleman (BUF WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Dawuane Smoot (BUF DE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bills 39% · Rams 61%

Final margin
Rams by 2
Luck in points
1.4 for the Rams
Luck-adjusted margin
Rams by 0.6
Replay with same day's form
Bills 60% · Rams 40% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2024 games · Bills · Rams

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