2024 season · final
Buffalo Bills, 2024: game by game
The Bills went 13–4 in 2024; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 12.6 wins. Luck added 0.4: the 14th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 5–3.
Playoffs: 2–1, replay wins 1.7.
Every game
How often the Bills win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Cardinals | W 34–28 | 94% | +6 |
| Week 2 | @ Dolphins | W 31–10 | 80% | +20 |
| Week 3 | vs Jaguars | W 47–10 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 4 | @ Ravens | L 10–35 | 3% | −3 |
| Week 5 | @ Texans | L 20–23 | 18% | −18 |
| Week 6 | @ Jets | W 23–20 | 65% | +35 |
| Week 7 | vs Titans | W 34–10 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 8 | @ Seahawks | W 31–10 | 97% | +3 |
| Week 9 | vs Dolphins | W 30–27 | 78% | +22 |
| Week 10 | @ Colts | W 30–20 | 91% | +9 |
| Week 11 | vs Chiefs | W 30–21 | 53% | +47 |
| Week 13 | vs 49ers | W 35–10 | 98% | +3 |
| Week 14 | @ Rams | L 42–44 | 66% | −66 |
| Week 15 | @ Lions | W 48–42 | 87% | +13 |
| Week 16 | vs Patriots | W 24–21 | 64% | +36 |
| Week 17 | vs Jets | W 40–14 | 96% | +4 |
| Week 18 | @ Patriots | L 16–23 | 73% | −73 |
| Wild Card | vs Broncos | W 31–7 | 96% | +4 |
| Divisional round | vs Ravens | W 27–25 | 66% | +34 |
| AFC Championship | @ Chiefs | L 29–32 | 7% | −7 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Bills’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Fumble bounces | +0.56 | +22.3 |
| Drops | +0.52 | +14.4 |
| Kicks | +0.12 | +3.3 |
| Injuries | +0.07 | +3.3 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.06 | −8.3 |
| Judgment calls | −0.05 | −3.3 |