Referee calls · 2019–2026
Do refs favor the Bills?
No more than most teams. Judgment calls have been worth −0.61 points a game to the Bills since 2019, 28th of 32 teams. In the playoffs: −1.39 points a game over 15 games, a small sample that swings on a handful of flags.
Call luck, season by season
Points per regular-season game from judgment calls: the calls that helped the Bills minus the calls that hurt them.
| Season | Games | Points per game | League rank | Flags against | Flags for | Playoffs, pts per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2 | +2.98 | 5th | 14 | 11 | – |
| 2025 | 17 | −0.19 | 20th | 72 | 56 | −3.53 (2) |
| 2024 | 17 | −0.37 | 25th | 66 | 74 | −0.36 (3) |
| 2023 | 17 | −1.13 | 29th | 70 | 55 | −0.30 (2) |
| 2022 | 16 | +0.02 | 14th | 58 | 56 | −2.94 (2) |
| 2021 | 17 | −2.22 | 32nd | 81 | 65 | −2.79 (2) |
| 2020 | 16 | −0.91 | 25th | 65 | 53 | +2.03 (3) |
| 2019 | 16 | +0.20 | 17th | 69 | 58 | −6.76 (1) |
Biggest calls for the Bills
- Offensive Pass Interference on the Patriots (Julian Edelman), 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2019 Week 16 · 21 pts of win probability
- Defensive Pass Interference on the Rams, 10 yards · 2020 Week 3 · 20 pts of win probability
- Offensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs (Travis Kelce), 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2022 Week 6 · 19 pts of win probability
- Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Marlon Humphrey), 26 yards · 2019 Week 14 · 18 pts of win probability
- Roughing the Kicker on the Dolphins (Zach Sieler), 15 yards · 2025 Week 3 · 18 pts of win probability
Biggest calls against
- Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2022 Week 9 · 40 pts of win probability
- Defensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Tre'Davious White), 30 yards · 2025 Divisional round · 36 pts of win probability
- Offensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Stefon Diggs), 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2023 Week 1 · 30 pts of win probability
- Defensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Taron Johnson), 28 yards · 2023 Week 10 · 29 pts of win probability
- Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2025 Week 15 · 26 pts of win probability
Questions
Do refs favor the Bills?
No more than most teams. Judgment calls have been worth −0.61 points a game to the Bills since 2019, 28th of 32 teams.
What about the playoffs?
In the playoffs: −1.39 points a game over 15 games, a small sample that swings on a handful of flags.
How is this measured?
Every flag that isn’t a pre-snap foul (holding, pass interference, roughing, unnecessary roughness and the like) is valued in expected points for the team it helped, including any play it wiped out. A flag on a player who is rarely flagged counts more (up to twice), one on a frequent offender less. A team’s call luck is the calls that helped it minus the calls that hurt it. It says how the calls went, not why: teams that throw deep draw more pass interference, for example.
Is it more than chance?
Mostly not. A team’s call luck in odd weeks barely predicts its call luck in even weeks (correlation 0.06 across all teams since 2019), which is what chance looks like. Over 32 teams, a few will always sit at the top of this list.
All teams, 2026 · Referee crews · Buffalo Bills, every season