luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 3 2025 · September 18, 2025

Dolphins at Bills, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?

The Bills beat the Dolphins 31–21, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Bills win 9 of 10. The Dolphins had the bounces: drops alone were worth 12 points of win probability to the Dolphins.

Before kickoff the Bills were 82% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 10:20 left): Roughing the Kicker on the Dolphins (Zach Sieler), 15 yards, worth 18 points of win probability to the Bills.

Final

Miami Dolphins 21
Buffalo Bills 31

September 18, 2025 · New Era Field · Closing line: Bills −12.5

Luck index +11 Bills about even · −11 Dolphins

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Dolphins win 1, Bills win 9.

  1. 1 MIA 20 BUF 14
  2. 2 MIA 21 BUF 23
  3. 3 MIA 17 BUF 21
  4. 4 MIA 20 BUF 27
  5. 5 MIA 8 BUF 17
  6. 6 MIA 14 BUF 25
  7. 7 MIA 10 BUF 24
  8. 8 MIA 16 BUF 34
  9. 9 MIA 13 BUF 35
  10. 10 MIA 10 BUF 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Dolphins win 11% of them, Bills 89%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Dolphins by 17+0.5%
Dolphins by 9–162.1%
Dolphins by 1–87.5%
Level after regulation1.6%
Bills by 1–821.3%
Bills by 9–1628.4%
Bills by 17+38.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.2 points to the Dolphins: the final margin was Bills by 10, without the luck Bills by 15.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Prater, 39 yds missed · 89% expected
  • M. Prater, 48 yds made · 76% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Dolphins 6 for 57 yards, Bills 3 for 35 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:55 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Dolphins, 5 yards, wiping out the play +4% BUF +1.6 pts
Q1 8:31 Unnecessary Roughness on the Bills (A.J. Epenesa), 15 yards +2% MIA +1.4 pts
Q1 8:25 Defensive Pass Interference on the Dolphins (Jack Jones), 20 yards +3% BUF +1.3 pts
Q1 4:04 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Dolphins (K.J. Britt), 10 yards +2% BUF +0.9 pts
Q3 12:41 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards +4% MIA +1.0 pts
Q3 10:46 Unnecessary Roughness on the Dolphins (Jordyn Brooks), 2 yards +2% BUF +0.6 pts
Q3 0:56 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Dolphins, 5 yards, wiping out the play +8% BUF +1.9 pts
Q4 10:20 Roughing the Kicker on the Dolphins (Zach Sieler), 15 yards +18% BUF +3.7 pts
Q4 3:00 Offensive Holding on the Bills (Dalton Kincaid), 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% MIA +1.3 pts

Dolphins penalties, every game · Bills penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Bills’ chance of winning

As low as 37% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bills were ahead in it, below while the Dolphins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:28 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +6% MIA MIA: Touchdown
2 Q2 6:07 M. Prater missed a 39-yard field goalKicks · 89% expected for him +6% MIA BUF: End of half
3 Q2 0:02 The Bills fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% BUF BUF: Touchdown
4 Q3 3:19 Ty.Johnson dropped a catchable passDrops · 3 drops on 46 catchable balls before this +8% MIA BUF: Punt
5 Q3 0:56 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Dolphins, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% BUF BUF: Touchdown
6 Q4 14:16 The Dolphins converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +12% MIA MIA: Touchdown
7 Q4 10:20 Roughing the Kicker on the Dolphins (Zach Sieler), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 8 flags in 4737 snaps before, position avg 1 per 323 +18% BUF BUF: Touchdown
8 Q4 3:06 The Dolphins threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 54% of interception-worthy throws +7% BUF MIA: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Matt Milano (BUF LB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Ed Oliver (BUF DT), out · 0.5 pts
  • Tyler Bass (BUF K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Tylan Grable (BUF T), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • DeWayne Carter (BUF DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Jason Sanders (MIA K), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Kader Kohou (MIA CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Liam Eichenberg (MIA G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Ifeatu Melifonwu (MIA S), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Dolphins 1% · Bills 99%

Final margin
Bills by 10
Luck in points
5.2 for the Dolphins
Luck-adjusted margin
Bills by 15.2
Replay with same day's form
Dolphins 11% · Bills 89% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · Dolphins · Bills

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