luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 3 2025 · September 21, 2025

Broncos at Chargers, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?

The Chargers beat the Broncos 23–20, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Chargers were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:05 left): C. Dicker made a 43-yard field goal, worth 11 points of win probability to the Chargers.

Final

Denver Broncos 20
Los Angeles Chargers 23

September 21, 2025 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Chargers −2.5

Luck index +24 Chargers about even · −24 Broncos

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Broncos win 2, Chargers win 8.

  1. 1 DEN 29 LAC 17
  2. 2 DEN 34 LAC 30
  3. 3 DEN 18 LAC 20
  4. 4 DEN 17 LAC 20
  5. 5 DEN 30 LAC 36
  6. 6 DEN 10 LAC 18
  7. 7 DEN 28 LAC 40
  8. 8 DEN 14 LAC 30
  9. 9 DEN 16 LAC 37
  10. 10 DEN 7 LAC 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Broncos win 24% of them, Chargers 76%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chargers by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Broncos by 17+3.0%
Broncos by 9–166.9%
Broncos by 1–813.9%
Level after regulation3.9%
Chargers by 1–826.0%
Chargers by 9–1621.6%
Chargers by 17+24.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.4 points to the Broncos: the final margin was Chargers by 3, without the luck Chargers by 3.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Dicker, 32 yds made · 97% expected
  • W. Lutz, 42 yds made · 86% expected
  • C. Dicker, 24 yds made · 100% expected
  • W. Lutz, 26 yds made · 97% expected
  • C. Dicker, 43 yds made · 88% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Broncos 10 for 90 yards, Chargers 3 for 25 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:17 Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos (Talanoa Hufanga), 18 yards +6% LAC +2.0 pts
Q1 8:53 Defensive Offside on the Broncos (Nik Bonitto), 5 yards · pre-snap +9% LAC +2.2 pts
Q1 8:04 Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards +2% DEN +0.9 pts
Q1 6:55 Offensive Holding on the Broncos (Adam Trautman), 10 yards +4% LAC +1.1 pts
Q2 0:28 Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards +2% DEN +0.3 pts
Q3 11:25 Illegal Contact on the Broncos (Patrick Surtain II), 5 yards +1% LAC +0.9 pts
Q3 10:34 Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos (Talanoa Hufanga), 8 yards +2% LAC +0.5 pts
Q3 10:29 Defensive Holding on the Broncos (John Franklin-Myers), 5 yards +1% LAC +0.3 pts
Q4 14:21 Face Mask on the Chargers (Alohi Gilman), 5 yards +2% DEN +0.8 pts
Q4 13:19 Offensive Pass Interference on the Broncos (Troy Franklin), 10 yards +3% LAC +1.2 pts
Q4 7:08 Offensive Offside on the Broncos (Adam Trautman), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +5% LAC +1.7 pts
Q4 6:47 Face Mask on the Broncos, 9 yards +4% LAC +0.8 pts
Q4 4:18 Unnecessary Roughness on the Broncos (Talanoa Hufanga), 15 yards +5% LAC +1.8 pts

Broncos penalties, every game · Chargers penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Chargers’ chance of winning

As low as 13% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chargers were ahead in it, below while the Broncos were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:17 Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos (Talanoa Hufanga), 18 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 3100 snaps before, position avg 1 per 467 +6% LAC LAC: Field goal
2 Q1 13:29 The Chargers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +8% LAC LAC: Field goal
3 Q1 9:31 The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +6% DEN LAC: Punt
4 Q1 8:53 Defensive Offside on the Broncos (Nik Bonitto), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 8 flags in 1813 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +9% LAC LAC: Punt
5 Q3 13:40 The Chargers fumbled and the Broncos recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% DEN LAC: Field goal
6 Q3 7:13 The Chargers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +8% LAC LAC: Field goal
7 Q4 2:00 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +6% LAC DEN: Punt
8 Q4 0:05 C. Dicker made a 43-yard field goalKicks · 88% expected for him +11% LAC –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Rashawn Slater (LAC T), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Khalil Mack (LAC DE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Elijah Molden (LAC CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Will Dissly (LAC TE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Cam Hart (LAC CB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Josh Harris (LAC LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Broncos 42% · Chargers 58%

Final margin
Chargers by 3
Luck in points
0.4 for the Broncos
Luck-adjusted margin
Chargers by 3.4
Replay with same day's form
Broncos 24% · Chargers 76% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · Broncos · Chargers

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