2025 season · final
Denver Broncos, 2025: game by game
The Broncos went 14–3 in 2025; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 10.5 wins. Luck added 3.5: the 3rd-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 11–2.
Playoffs: 1–1, replay wins 0.6.
Every game
How often the Broncos win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Titans | W 20–12 | 87% | +13 |
| Week 2 | @ Colts | L 28–29 | 36% | −36 |
| Week 3 | @ Chargers | L 20–23 | 24% | −24 |
| Week 4 | vs Bengals | W 28–3 | 82% | +18 |
| Week 5 | @ Eagles | W 21–17 | 82% | +18 |
| Week 6 | vs Jets | W 13–11 | 89% | +11 |
| Week 7 | vs Giants | W 33–32 | 71% | +29 |
| Week 8 | vs Cowboys | W 44–24 | 91% | +9 |
| Week 9 | @ Texans | W 18–15 | 72% | +28 |
| Week 10 | vs Raiders | W 10–7 | 45% | +55 |
| Week 11 | vs Chiefs | W 22–19 | 44% | +56 |
| Week 13 | @ Commanders | W 27–26 | 49% | +51 |
| Week 14 | @ Raiders | W 24–17 | 73% | +27 |
| Week 15 | vs Packers | W 34–26 | 8% | +92 |
| Week 16 | vs Jaguars | L 20–34 | 44% | −44 |
| Week 17 | @ Chiefs | W 20–13 | 59% | +41 |
| Week 18 | vs Chargers | W 19–3 | 96% | +4 |
| Divisional round | vs Bills | W 33–30 | 47% | +53 |
| AFC Championship | vs Patriots | L 7–10 | 16% | −16 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Broncos’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.84 | +10.2 |
| Injuries | +0.55 | +27.5 |
| Drops | +0.20 | +8.6 |
| Rest | −0.03 | −1.0 |
| Kicks | −0.07 | −5.5 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.64 | −10.4 |
| Judgment calls | −1.19 | −23.5 |