luckadjusted

Week 13 2025 · November 30, 2025

Broncos at Commanders, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?

The Broncos beat the Commanders 27–26, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Broncos win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: injuries alone were worth 3.7 points to the Broncos.

Before kickoff the Broncos were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (QOT, 5:29 left): Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos (Talanoa Hufanga), 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 68 points of win probability to the Commanders.

Final (OT)

Denver Broncos 27
Washington Commanders 26

November 30, 2025 · FedExField · Closing line: Broncos −6.5

Luck index +51 Broncos lucky · −51 Commanders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Broncos win 5, Commanders win 5.

  1. 1 DEN 31 WAS 10
  2. 2 DEN 23 WAS 10
  3. 3 DEN 24 WAS 16
  4. 4 DEN 24 WAS 19
  5. 5 DEN 29 WAS 27
  6. 6 DEN 31 WAS 34
  7. 7 DEN 10 WAS 16
  8. 8 DEN 16 WAS 26
  9. 9 DEN 19 WAS 33
  10. 10 DEN 10 WAS 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Broncos win 49% of them, Commanders 51%, counting the 7% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Broncos by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Broncos by 17+8.7%
Broncos by 9–1613.8%
Broncos by 1–823.4%
Level after regulation6.9%
Commanders by 1–823.0%
Commanders by 9–1614.0%
Commanders by 17+10.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Broncos by 1. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Broncos by 4.9.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • W. Lutz, 33 yds made · 93% expected
  • W. Lutz, 33 yds made · 93% expected
  • J. Moody, 38 yds made · 86% expected
  • J. Moody, 32 yds made · 92% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Commanders’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 92%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Commanders were ahead in it, below while the Broncos were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q4 14:13 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expectedThe Broncos threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +19% WAS DEN: Punt
2 Q4 0:52 The Commanders converted 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +23% WAS WAS: Field goal
3 QOT 5:31 The Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +19% DEN WAS: Touchdown
4 QOT 5:29 Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos (Talanoa Hufanga), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 8 flags in 3734 snaps before, position avg 1 per 467 +68% WAS WAS: Touchdown
5 QOT 4:04 Offensive Holding on the Commanders, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +63% DEN –
6 QOT 3:58 The Commanders converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +43% WAS WAS: Touchdown
7 QOT 2:50 The Commanders converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +34% DEN WAS: Touchdown
8 QOT 2:47 The Commanders’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +47% DEN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jayden Daniels (WAS QB), out, replaced by m.mariota · 2.7 pts
  • Marshon Lattimore (WAS CB), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Trey Amos (WAS CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Tyler Ott (WAS LS), out · 0.1 pts
  • Ben Powers (DEN G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • J.K. Dobbins (DEN RB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Broncos 79% · Commanders 21%

Final margin
Broncos by 1
Luck in points
3.9 for the Commanders
Luck-adjusted margin
Broncos by 4.9
Replay with same day's form
Broncos 49% · Commanders 51% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · Broncos · Commanders

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