luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 13 2025 · November 27, 2025

Chiefs at Cowboys, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys beat the Chiefs 31–28, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Cowboys win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 17 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Before kickoff the Chiefs were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:46 left): Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 12 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Final

Kansas City Chiefs 28
Dallas Cowboys 31

November 27, 2025 · AT&T Stadium · Closing line: Chiefs −3.5

Luck index +59 Cowboys lucky · −59 Chiefs

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chiefs win 6, Cowboys win 4.

  1. 1 KC 51 DAL 27
  2. 2 KC 51 DAL 34
  3. 3 KC 24 DAL 13
  4. 4 KC 34 DAL 27
  5. 5 KC 16 DAL 13
  6. 6 KC 23 DAL 21
  7. 7 KC 29 DAL 31
  8. 8 KC 20 DAL 25
  9. 9 KC 27 DAL 37
  10. 10 KC 13 DAL 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chiefs win 59% of them, Cowboys 41%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chiefs by 17+13.5%
Chiefs by 9–1615.7%
Chiefs by 1–828.7%
Level after regulation3.4%
Cowboys by 1–819.4%
Cowboys by 9–1612.0%
Cowboys by 17+7.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +9.8 points to the Cowboys: the final margin was Cowboys by 3, without the luck Chiefs by 6.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Aubrey, 49 yds made · 85% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 36 yds made · 95% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 26 yds made · 100% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Chiefs 10 for 119 yards, Cowboys 7 for 50 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:45 False Start on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% KC +0.6 pts
Q1 0:01 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys (Alijah Clark), 10 yards +1% KC +0.9 pts
Q2 8:10 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 10 yards +2% DAL +0.9 pts
Q2 1:57 Defensive Offside on the Cowboys (Solomon Thomas), 5 yards · pre-snap +5% KC +0.5 pts
Q2 0:46 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 10 yards, wiping out the play +12% DAL +2.3 pts
Q3 13:27 Offensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs (Xavier Worthy), 10 yards, wiping out the play +11% DAL +2.5 pts
Q3 6:30 Defensive Holding on the Chiefs (Chamarri Conner), 5 yards +2% DAL +0.5 pts
Q3 5:08 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs (Trent McDuffie), 32 yards +3% DAL +1.9 pts
Q3 4:13 Delay of Game on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% KC +0.4 pts
Q4 14:40 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs (Trent McDuffie), 10 yards +4% DAL +1.1 pts
Q4 12:47 Offensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Jake Ferguson), 10 yards +5% KC +1.0 pts
Q4 11:15 Roughing the Passer on the Chiefs (Charles Omenihu), 15 yards +7% DAL +1.1 pts
Q4 11:15 Kickoff Out of Bounds on the Cowboys (Jalen Tolbert), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% KC +0.4 pts
Q4 11:09 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 10 yards +2% DAL +0.9 pts
Q4 9:35 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys (C.J. Goodwin), 10 yards +3% KC +0.7 pts
Q4 3:17 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs (Jaylen Watson), 4 yards +3% DAL +0.7 pts
Q4 3:10 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs (Trent McDuffie), 13 yards, wiping out the play +4% KC +0.4 pts

Chiefs penalties, every game · Cowboys penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Cowboys’ chance of winning

As low as 27% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cowboys were ahead in it, below while the Chiefs were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 6:55 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +10% DAL DAL: Touchdown
2 Q2 12:29 The Cowboys converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +8% DAL DAL: Field goal
3 Q2 0:46 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +12% DAL DAL: End of half
4 Q3 13:27 Offensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs (Xavier Worthy), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 3 flags in 1330 snaps before, position avg 1 per 403 +11% DAL DAL: Punt
5 Q3 11:06 G. Pickens dropped a catchable passDrops · 15 drops on 289 catchable balls before this +7% KC DAL: Punt
6 Q4 14:56 The Chiefs converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +10% KC KC: Touchdown
7 Q4 13:21 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +10% DAL DAL: Touchdown
8 Q4 11:15 The Cowboys’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedRoughing the Passer on the Chiefs (Charles Omenihu), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 17 flags in 3567 snaps before, position avg 1 per 304Kickoff Out of Bounds on the Cowboys (Jalen Tolbert), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 9 flags in 2244 snaps before, position avg 1 per 403 +11% DAL DAL: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Trevon Diggs (DAL CB), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Tyler Guyton (DAL T), out · 0.5 pts
  • Juanyeh Thomas (DAL S), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Trey Smith (KC G), out · 0.5 pts
  • Noah Gray (KC TE), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chiefs 91% · Cowboys 9%

Final margin
Cowboys by 3
Luck in points
9.8 for the Cowboys
Luck-adjusted margin
Chiefs by 6.8
Replay with same day's form
Chiefs 59% · Cowboys 41% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · Chiefs · Cowboys

More from Week 13 2025