luckadjusted

Week 13 2025 · November 30, 2025

Rams at Panthers, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?

The Panthers stole one. They beat the Rams 31–28, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Rams win 9 of 10. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 3.0 points to the Panthers.

Before kickoff the Rams were 77% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:34 left): the Rams were stopped on 3rd & 10, worth 38 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Final

Los Angeles Rams 28
Carolina Panthers 31

November 30, 2025 · Bank of America Stadium · Closing line: Rams −10

Luck index +87 Panthers very lucky · −87 Rams

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Rams win 9, Panthers win 1.

  1. 1 LA 37 CAR 7
  2. 2 LA 33 CAR 10
  3. 3 LA 34 CAR 17
  4. 4 LA 21 CAR 7
  5. 5 LA 35 CAR 23
  6. 6 LA 16 CAR 7
  7. 7 LA 24 CAR 17
  8. 8 LA 19 CAR 14
  9. 9 LA 26 CAR 24
  10. 10 LA 13 CAR 20

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Rams win 87% of them, Panthers 13%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Panthers by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Rams by 17+35.6%
Rams by 9–1625.6%
Rams by 1–825.7%
Level after regulation0.7%
Panthers by 1–88.6%
Panthers by 9–163.1%
Panthers by 17+0.7%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Panthers by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Panthers by 8.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

When it happened

Panthers’ chance of winning

As low as 34% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Panthers were ahead in it, below while the Rams were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:46 The Panthers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +15% CAR CAR: Touchdown
2 Q1 4:07 The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedThe Rams were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +29% CAR LA: Opp touchdown
3 Q1 1:20 The Rams threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the PanthersSpecial teams +24% CAR LA: Touchdown
4 Q3 8:54 The Panthers converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +22% CAR CAR: Touchdown
5 Q4 6:43 The Panthers converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 57% expected +34% CAR CAR: Touchdown
6 Q4 5:06 P. Nacua dropped a catchable passDrops · 12 drops on 313 catchable balls before this +9% CAR LA: Turnover
7 Q4 4:09 The Rams converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +11% LA LA: Turnover
8 Q4 2:34 The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedThe Rams fumbled and the Panthers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Panthers, 15 yardsJudgment callsDelay of Game on the Rams, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +38% CAR LA: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jaycee Horn (CAR CB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Tre'von Moehrig (CAR S), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Brady Christensen (CAR OL), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Cade Mays (CAR C), out · 0.3 pts
  • Christian Rozeboom (CAR LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Patrick Jones II (CAR LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Rob Havenstein (LA OL), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Tyler Higbee (LA TE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Quentin Lake (LA S), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Rams 8% · Panthers 92%

Final margin
Panthers by 3
Luck in points
5.2 for the Rams
Luck-adjusted margin
Panthers by 8.2
Replay with same day's form
Rams 87% · Panthers 13% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · Rams · Panthers

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