luckadjusted

Week 13 2025 · November 30, 2025

Texans at Colts, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?

The Texans beat the Colts 20–16, but the Colts played well enough to win it: they take 6 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: drops alone were worth 5.2 points to the Texans.

Before kickoff the Colts were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:55 left): J. Downs dropped a catchable pass, worth 21 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

Houston Texans 20
Indianapolis Colts 16

November 30, 2025 · Lucas Oil Stadium · Closing line: Colts −3

Luck index +64 Texans very lucky · −64 Colts

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texans win 4, Colts win 6.

  1. 1 HOU 34 IND 16
  2. 2 HOU 24 IND 13
  3. 3 HOU 23 IND 17
  4. 4 HOU 20 IND 18
  5. 5 HOU 17 IND 19
  6. 6 HOU 17 IND 23
  7. 7 HOU 3 IND 12
  8. 8 HOU 6 IND 19
  9. 9 HOU 10 IND 27
  10. 10 HOU 9 IND 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texans win 36% of them, Colts 64%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texans by 17+4.2%
Texans by 9–169.3%
Texans by 1–819.8%
Level after regulation2.5%
Colts by 1–828.1%
Colts by 9–1619.9%
Colts by 17+16.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Texans by 4. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Colts by 2.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Fairbairn, 23 yds made · 100% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 43 yds made · 86% expected
  • M. Badgley, 42 yds made · 85% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Colts’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 63%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Colts were ahead in it, below while the Texans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:20 The Texans converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +12% HOU HOU: Field goal
2 Q3 6:00 The Colts converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +10% IND IND: Touchdown
3 Q3 3:35 Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +13% HOU HOU: Touchdown
4 Q3 3:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Calen Bullock), 32 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 1842 snaps before, position avg 1 per 467 +15% IND IND: Touchdown
5 Q3 1:32 The Texans converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +11% HOU HOU: Touchdown
6 Q4 4:53 The Texans were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +14% IND HOU: End of game
7 Q4 1:55 The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expectedJ. Downs dropped a catchable passDrops · 10 drops on 198 catchable balls before this +21% HOU IND: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 1:49 The Colts were stopped on 4th & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +19% HOU –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • DeForest Buckner (IND DT), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Spencer Shrader (IND K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • M.J. Stewart (HOU S), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texans 45% · Colts 55%

Final margin
Texans by 4
Luck in points
6.7 for the Texans
Luck-adjusted margin
Colts by 2.7
Replay with same day's form
Texans 36% · Colts 64% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · Texans · Colts

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