luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 13 2025 · November 30, 2025

Texans at Colts, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?

The Texans beat the Colts 20–16, but the replays lean toward the Colts: they take 8 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: drops alone were worth 27 points of win probability to the Texans.

Before kickoff the Colts were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:55 left): J. Downs dropped a catchable pass, worth 19 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

Houston Texans 20
Indianapolis Colts 16

November 30, 2025 · Lucas Oil Stadium · Closing line: Colts −3

Luck index +78 Texans very lucky · −78 Colts

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texans win 2, Colts win 8.

  1. 1 HOU 37 IND 24
  2. 2 HOU 27 IND 24
  3. 3 HOU 9 IND 11
  4. 4 HOU 20 IND 24
  5. 5 HOU 16 IND 23
  6. 6 HOU 17 IND 27
  7. 7 HOU 9 IND 21
  8. 8 HOU 19 IND 34
  9. 9 HOU 14 IND 33
  10. 10 HOU 9 IND 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texans win 22% of them, Colts 78%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texans by 17+2.5%
Texans by 9–166.6%
Texans by 1–813.2%
Level after regulation4.3%
Colts by 1–826.5%
Colts by 9–1623.3%
Colts by 17+23.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.3 points to the Texans: the final margin was Texans by 4, without the luck Colts by 2.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Fairbairn, 23 yds made · 99% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 43 yds made · 86% expected
  • M. Badgley, 42 yds made · 86% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Texans 9 for 85 yards, Colts 5 for 33 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:30 Illegal Contact on the Colts (Jaylon Jones), 5 yards +5% HOU +1.7 pts
Q1 9:15 Illegal Formation on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% IND +1.1 pts
Q1 5:34 Illegal Formation on the Texans, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +7% IND +2.6 pts
Q1 0:36 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 8 yards, wiping out the play +4% IND +1.8 pts
Q1 0:12 Illegal Forward Pass on the Texans (C.J. Stroud), 5 yards +1% IND +0.5 pts
Q2 8:41 Illegal Formation on the Texans (Ameer Speed), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% IND +0.5 pts
Q2 6:57 Defensive Holding on the Colts (Grover Stewart), 5 yards +3% HOU +0.9 pts
Q2 2:05 Delay of Game on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% HOU +0.3 pts
Q3 3:35 Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yards, wiping out the play +13% HOU +3.3 pts
Q3 3:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Calen Bullock), 32 yards +14% IND +4.0 pts
Q4 15:00 False Start on the Texans (Dalton Schultz), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% IND +0.6 pts
Q4 14:51 Defensive Pass Interference on the Colts (Kenny Moore), 8 yards +9% HOU +2.1 pts
Q4 12:00 Roughing the Passer on the Texans (Tim Settle), 15 yards +3% IND +1.4 pts
Q4 4:45 Illegal Use of Hands on the Texans (E.J. Speed), 5 yards +3% IND +0.5 pts

Texans penalties, every game · Colts penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Colts’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 63%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Colts were ahead in it, below while the Texans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:20 The Texans converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +10% HOU HOU: Field goal
2 Q3 3:35 Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +13% HOU HOU: Touchdown
3 Q3 3:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Calen Bullock), 32 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 1842 snaps before, position avg 1 per 467 +14% IND IND: Touchdown
4 Q3 1:32 The Texans converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +10% HOU HOU: Touchdown
5 Q4 14:51 Defensive Pass Interference on the Colts (Kenny Moore), 8 yardsJudgment calls · 15 flags in 6520 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +9% HOU HOU: Touchdown
6 Q4 4:53 The Texans were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +14% IND HOU: End of game
7 Q4 1:55 J. Downs dropped a catchable passDrops · 10 drops on 198 catchable balls before this +19% HOU IND: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 1:49 The Colts were stopped on 4th & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +11% HOU –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • DeForest Buckner (IND DT), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Spencer Shrader (IND K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • M.J. Stewart (HOU S), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texans 43% · Colts 57%

Final margin
Texans by 4
Luck in points
6.3 for the Texans
Luck-adjusted margin
Colts by 2.3
Replay with same day's form
Texans 22% · Colts 78% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · Texans · Colts

More from Week 13 2025