luckadjusted

Week 13 2025 · November 30, 2025

Jaguars at Titans, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?

The Jaguars beat the Titans 25–3, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Jaguars win 10 of 10. The Titans had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 2.2 points to the Titans.

Before kickoff the Jaguars were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:25 left): the Titans were stopped on 4th & 2, worth 12 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars 25
Tennessee Titans 3

November 30, 2025 · Nissan Stadium · Closing line: Jaguars −6

Luck index +2 Jaguars about even · −2 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jaguars win 10, Titans win 0.

  1. 1 JAX 32 TEN 0
  2. 2 JAX 33 TEN 6
  3. 3 JAX 31 TEN 7
  4. 4 JAX 31 TEN 10
  5. 5 JAX 40 TEN 23
  6. 6 JAX 23 TEN 7
  7. 7 JAX 30 TEN 17
  8. 8 JAX 24 TEN 14
  9. 9 JAX 17 TEN 10
  10. 10 JAX 13 TEN 10

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jaguars win 98% of them, Titans 2%. The line is what actually happened: Jaguars by 22.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jaguars by 17+71.8%
Jaguars by 9–1618.5%
Jaguars by 1–87.3%
Level after regulation0.4%
Titans by 1–81.7%
Titans by 9–160.4%
Titans by 17+0.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Jaguars by 22. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Jaguars by 18.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Slye, 28 yds made · 96% expected
  • C. Little, 45 yds made · 78% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Titans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 72%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Titans were ahead in it, below while the Jaguars were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 4:09 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +8% JAX JAX: Touchdown
2 Q1 1:06 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +6% JAX JAX: Touchdown
3 Q1 1:04 The Titans fumbled and the Jaguars recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% JAX TEN: Punt
4 Q2 14:54 The Jaguars’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedUnnecessary Roughness on the Titans (Jeffery Simmons), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 25 flags in 5564 snaps before, position avg 1 per 323Encroachment on the Titans (Arden Key), 1 yardsPre-snap flags · 22 flags in 3763 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445Kickoff Out of Bounds on the Jaguars (Cam Little), 0 yardsPre-snap flags · 2 flags in 242 snaps before, position avg 1 per 264 +4% JAX JAX: Punt
5 Q2 14:15 The Titans fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% TEN TEN: Punt
6 Q2 1:14 The Titans converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +5% TEN TEN: Turnover on downs
7 Q2 0:25 The Titans were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 55% expectedT. Pollard dropped a catchable passDrops · 13 drops on 192 catchable balls before this +12% JAX TEN: Punt
8 Q3 12:34 Roughing the Kicker on the Titans (Mike Brown), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 1209 snaps before, position avg 1 per 467 +4% JAX JAX: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • L'Jarius Sneed (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Lloyd Cushenberry III (TEN C), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jalyn Armour-Davis (TEN CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Oluwafemi Oladejo (TEN LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Patrick Mekari (JAX OL), out · 0.4 pts
  • Travis Hunter (JAX WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Arik Armstead (JAX DT), out · 0.3 pts
  • Eric Murray (JAX S), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Hunter Long (JAX TE), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jaguars 99% · Titans 1%

Final margin
Jaguars by 22
Luck in points
3.6 for the Jaguars
Luck-adjusted margin
Jaguars by 18.4
Replay with same day's form
Jaguars 98% · Titans 2% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · Jaguars · Titans

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