luckadjusted

Week 13 2025 · November 27, 2025

Bengals at Ravens, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?

The Bengals beat the Ravens 32–14, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Bengals win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 8.8 points to the Bengals.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 3:36 left): the Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 9, worth 26 points of win probability to the Bengals.

Final

Cincinnati Bengals 32
Baltimore Ravens 14

November 27, 2025 · M&T Bank Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −7

Luck index +52 Bengals lucky · −52 Ravens

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bengals win 5, Ravens win 5.

  1. 1 CIN 55 BAL 31
  2. 2 CIN 35 BAL 20
  3. 3 CIN 22 BAL 13
  4. 4 CIN 22 BAL 17
  5. 5 CIN 39 BAL 37
  6. 6 CIN 22 BAL 24
  7. 7 CIN 20 BAL 27
  8. 8 CIN 13 BAL 23
  9. 9 CIN 3 BAL 17
  10. 10 CIN 10 BAL 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bengals win 48% of them, Ravens 52%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bengals by 18.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bengals by 17+11.8%
Bengals by 9–1614.5%
Bengals by 1–820.2%
Level after regulation4.7%
Ravens by 1–821.4%
Ravens by 9–1615.5%
Ravens by 17+11.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Bengals by 18. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Bengals by 0.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • E. McPherson, 31 yds made · 95% expected
  • E. McPherson, 42 yds made · 81% expected
  • E. McPherson, 24 yds made · 99% expected
  • E. McPherson, 33 yds made · 93% expected
  • E. McPherson, 52 yds made · 63% expected
  • E. McPherson, 41 yds made · 83% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Ravens’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 74%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Ravens were ahead in it, below while the Bengals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 3:36 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedThe Ravens fumbled and the Bengals recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +26% CIN BAL: Punt
2 Q1 2:35 The Bengals were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +14% BAL CIN: Field goal
3 Q2 15:00 The Bengals converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +10% CIN CIN: Field goal
4 Q2 2:00 Offensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Zay Flowers), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 4 flags in 2422 snaps before, position avg 1 per 403 +20% CIN CIN: Punt
5 Q2 1:46 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +8% CIN BAL: Punt
6 Q2 0:36 The Ravens fumbled and the Bengals recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% CIN BAL: End of half
7 Q3 0:20 The Bengals converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +11% CIN CIN: Touchdown
8 Q4 13:04 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedThe Ravens were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +13% CIN BAL: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tavius Robinson (BAL LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Tee Higgins (CIN WR), out · 1.1 pts
  • Trey Hendrickson (CIN DE), out · 0.5 pts
  • Cam Taylor-Britt (CIN CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Shemar Stewart (CIN DE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bengals 44% · Ravens 56%

Final margin
Bengals by 18
Luck in points
17.8 for the Bengals
Luck-adjusted margin
Bengals by 0.2
Replay with same day's form
Bengals 48% · Ravens 52% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · Bengals · Ravens

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