2025 season · final
Baltimore Ravens, 2025: game by game
The Ravens went 8–9 in 2025; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 10.0 wins. Luck cost them 2.0: the 7th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 2–5.
Every game
How often the Ravens win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Bills | L 40–41 | 51% | −51 |
| Week 2 | vs Browns | W 41–17 | 95% | +5 |
| Week 3 | vs Lions | L 30–38 | 24% | −24 |
| Week 4 | @ Chiefs | L 20–37 | 50% | −50 |
| Week 5 | vs Texans | L 10–44 | 21% | −21 |
| Week 6 | vs Rams | L 3–17 | 17% | −17 |
| Week 8 | vs Bears | W 30–16 | 55% | +45 |
| Week 9 | @ Dolphins | W 28–6 | 95% | +5 |
| Week 10 | @ Vikings | W 27–19 | 85% | +15 |
| Week 11 | @ Browns | W 23–16 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 12 | vs Jets | W 23–10 | 89% | +11 |
| Week 13 | vs Bengals | L 14–32 | 33% | −33 |
| Week 14 | vs Steelers | L 22–27 | 47% | −47 |
| Week 15 | @ Bengals | W 24–0 | 85% | +15 |
| Week 16 | vs Patriots | L 24–28 | 50% | −50 |
| Week 17 | @ Packers | W 41–24 | 41% | +59 |
| Week 18 | @ Steelers | L 24–26 | 64% | −64 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Ravens’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Judgment calls | +0.18 | +3.7 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.08 | +4.6 |
| Rest | +0.04 | +1.2 |
| Drops | −0.14 | −8.7 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.27 | −6.4 |
| Injuries | −0.51 | −17.5 |
| Kicks | −0.81 | −7.8 |