One-score games · decided by 8 points or fewer

The Ravens in one-score games

The Ravens are 3–2 in one-score games in 2026 so far, after 2–5 in 2025. Replayed with the same day’s form, they win 3.5 of those 5. Since 2019: 33–32 in 65 one-score games, 40.0 wins in replays.

A good record in close games looks like clutch. It rarely lasts: from 2019 to 2025, a team’s win rate in one-score games carried into the next season at a correlation of 0.12, against 0.39 for its overall record. How often a team wins those games in replays says what its play was worth.

Close-game luck by season

One-score wins minus how many of those games the Ravens win in replays (regular season).

2026 −0.5 3–2

2025 −2.2 2–5

2024 −2.6 5–5

2023 −1.4 4–4

2022 +0.4 6–5

2021 −0.4 6–6

2020 −0.4 2–4

2019 +0.2 5–1

Season	One-score record	Replay wins in those games	Close-game luck	Overall record
2026	3–2	3.5 of 5	−0.5	4–5
2025	2–5	4.2 of 7	−2.2	8–9
2024	5–5	7.6 of 10	−2.6	12–5
2023	4–4	5.4 of 8	−1.4	13–4
2022	6–5	5.6 of 11	+0.4	10–7
2021	6–6	6.4 of 12	−0.4	8–9
2020	2–4	2.4 of 6	−0.4	11–5
2019	5–1	4.8 of 6	+0.2	14–2

2026 one-score games

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 2	vs Saints	L 17–24	73%	−73
Week 3	vs Cowboys	W 34–31	75%	+25
Week 4	vs Titans	W 24–18	95%	+5
Week 5	@ Falcons	W 30–23	81%	+19
Week 6	@ Browns	L 10–13	24%	−24

Every team’s one-score record, 2026 · Baltimore Ravens, every season