2021 season · final

Baltimore Ravens, 2021: game by game

The Ravens went 8–9 in 2021; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 9.0 wins. Luck cost them 1.0: the 9th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 6–6.

Every game

How often the Ravens win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Raiders	L 27–33	31%	−31
Week 2	vs Chiefs	W 36–35	71%	+29
Week 3	@ Lions	W 19–17	49%	+51
Week 4	@ Broncos	W 23–7	88%	+12
Week 5	vs Colts	W 31–25	71%	+29
Week 6	vs Chargers	W 34–6	70%	+30
Week 7	vs Bengals	L 17–41	17%	−17
Week 9	vs Vikings	W 34–31	93%	+7
Week 10	@ Dolphins	L 10–22	65%	−65
Week 11	@ Bears	W 16–13	63%	+37
Week 12	vs Browns	W 16–10	75%	+25
Week 13	@ Steelers	L 19–20	34%	−34
Week 14	@ Browns	L 22–24	29%	−29
Week 15	vs Packers	L 30–31	20%	−20
Week 16	@ Bengals	L 21–41	16%	−16
Week 17	vs Rams	L 19–20	18%	−18
Week 18	vs Steelers	L 13–16	86%	−86

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 −31 @ LV

Wk 2 +29 vs KC

Wk 3 +51 @ DET

Wk 4 +12 @ DEN

Wk 5 +29 vs IND

Wk 6 +30 vs LAC

Wk 7 −17 vs CIN

Wk 9 +7 vs MIN

Wk 10 −65 @ MIA

Wk 11 +37 @ CHI

Wk 12 +25 vs CLE

Wk 13 −34 @ PIT

Wk 14 −29 @ CLE

Wk 15 −20 vs GB

Wk 16 −16 @ CIN

Wk 17 −18 vs LA

Wk 18 −86 vs PIT

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Ravens’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Kicks	+1.06	+31.4
Fumble bounces	+0.47	+5.9
Rest	−0.02	−0.6
3rd & 4th downs	−0.26	−2.4
Judgment calls	−0.48	−0.6
Injuries	−0.86	−34.4