luckadjusted

Week 10 2021 · November 11, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Ravens at Dolphins, Week 10 2021: who deserved to win?

The Dolphins beat the Ravens 22–10, but the Ravens played well enough to win it: they take 6 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 3.2 points to the Dolphins.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 74% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 11:40 left): the Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 10, worth 34 points of win probability to the Dolphins.

Final

Baltimore Ravens 10
Miami Dolphins 22

November 11, 2021 · Hard Rock Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −8.5

Luck index +64 Dolphins very lucky · −64 Ravens

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ravens win 6, Dolphins win 4.

  1. 1 BAL 28 MIA 3
  2. 2 BAL 37 MIA 19
  3. 3 BAL 29 MIA 16
  4. 4 BAL 27 MIA 17
  5. 5 BAL 29 MIA 23
  6. 6 BAL 23 MIA 20
  7. 7 BAL 20 MIA 23
  8. 8 BAL 24 MIA 31
  9. 9 BAL 13 MIA 26
  10. 10 BAL 13 MIA 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ravens win 64% of them, Dolphins 36%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Dolphins by 12.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ravens by 17+21.1%
Ravens by 9–1618.6%
Ravens by 1–822.2%
Level after regulation2.1%
Dolphins by 1–817.9%
Dolphins by 9–1610.8%
Dolphins by 17+7.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Dolphins by 12. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Dolphins by 13.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Tucker, 46 yds made · 83% expected
  • J. Tucker, 48 yds missed · 80% expected
  • J. Sanders, 31 yds made · 96% expected
  • J. Sanders, 22 yds made · 99% expected
  • J. Sanders, 29 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Dolphins’ chance of winning

As low as 38% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Dolphins were ahead in it, below while the Ravens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:59 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +5% MIA BAL: Field goal
2 Q1 2:06 J. Tucker missed 48-yard field goalKicks · 80% expected for him, 27 of 32 from 45+ before +10% MIA BAL: Punt
3 Q1 0:06 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +7% MIA BAL: Punt
4 Q3 8:11 The Ravens converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +8% BAL BAL: Punt
5 Q3 4:04 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +6% BAL MIA: Punt
6 Q3 2:21 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +6% MIA BAL: Punt
7 Q3 0:52 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +7% BAL BAL: Opp touchdown
8 Q4 11:40 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedThe Ravens fumbled and the Dolphins recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the DolphinsSpecial teams +34% MIA BAL: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • DeVante Parker (MIA WR), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Greg Mancz (MIA C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Michael Deiter (MIA C), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • DeShon Elliott (BAL FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Patrick Mekari (BAL G), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ravens 1% · Dolphins 99%

Final margin
Dolphins by 12
Luck in points
1.8 for the Ravens
Luck-adjusted margin
Dolphins by 13.8
Replay with same day's form
Ravens 64% · Dolphins 36% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2021 games · Ravens · Dolphins

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