luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 10 2021 · November 14, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Falcons at Cowboys, Week 10 2021: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys beat the Falcons 43–3, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Cowboys win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 72% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 0:19 left): the Cowboys converted 4th & 5, worth 10 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Final

Atlanta Falcons 3
Dallas Cowboys 43

November 14, 2021 · AT&T Stadium · Closing line: Cowboys −8

Luck index +6 Cowboys about even · −6 Falcons

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Falcons win 1, Cowboys win 9.

  1. 1 ATL 20 DAL 14
  2. 2 ATL 20 DAL 22
  3. 3 ATL 19 DAL 26
  4. 4 ATL 21 DAL 31
  5. 5 ATL 16 DAL 30
  6. 6 ATL 10 DAL 27
  7. 7 ATL 10 DAL 30
  8. 8 ATL 20 DAL 43
  9. 9 ATL 7 DAL 35
  10. 10 ATL 13 DAL 48

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Falcons win 6% of them, Cowboys 94%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 40.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Falcons by 17+0.1%
Falcons by 9–161.6%
Falcons by 1–83.8%
Level after regulation0.9%
Cowboys by 1–814.4%
Cowboys by 9–1618.2%
Cowboys by 17+61.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.5 points to the Falcons: the final margin was Cowboys by 40, without the luck Cowboys by 42.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Falcons 6 for 41 yards, Cowboys 8 for 80 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:24 False Start on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ATL +0.8 pts
Q1 4:05 Defensive Offside on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DAL +0.5 pts
Q2 0:37 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Falcons, 1 yard · pre-snap 0% DAL 0.0 pts
Q3 13:57 False Start on the Cowboys, 0 yards · pre-snap 0% ATL 0.0 pts
Q3 12:39 Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards 0% DAL +0.9 pts
Q3 12:28 False Start on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ATL +0.7 pts
Q3 7:43 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards 0% ATL +0.9 pts
Q3 4:14 Chop Block on the Cowboys, 15 yards 0% ATL +1.5 pts
Q3 2:34 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys (Noah Brown), 10 yards 0% ATL +0.9 pts
Q3 2:10 Defensive Offside on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DAL +0.4 pts
Q4 13:41 Unnecessary Roughness on the Cowboys (Damontae Kazee), 15 yards 0% ATL +1.3 pts
Q4 13:33 Face Mask on the Cowboys, 15 yards 0% ATL +1.4 pts
Q4 8:35 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% ATL +3.6 pts
Q4 5:09 Chop Block on the Falcons, 15 yards 0% DAL +1.4 pts

Falcons penalties, every game · Cowboys penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Cowboys’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cowboys were ahead in it, below while the Falcons were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:06 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +5% DAL DAL: Touchdown
2 Q1 11:48 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +4% DAL DAL: Touchdown
3 Q1 8:30 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +3% DAL ATL: Field goal
4 Q1 4:16 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +3% DAL ATL: Turnover on downs
5 Q1 4:12 The Falcons were stopped on 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +4% DAL ATL: Punt
6 Q1 0:19 The Cowboys converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +10% DAL DAL: Touchdown
7 Q2 8:43 The Cowboys converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +4% DAL DAL: Touchdown
8 Q2 0:44 Blocked punt by the CowboysSpecial teams +4% DAL DAL: Opp touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tyron Smith (DAL T), out · 1.2 pts
  • Greg Zuerlein (DAL K), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Blake Jarwin (DAL TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Randy Gregory (DAL DE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Calvin Ridley (ATL WR), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Isaiah Oliver (ATL CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Steven Means (ATL LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Falcons 0% · Cowboys 100%

Final margin
Cowboys by 40
Luck in points
2.5 for the Falcons
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 42.5
Replay with same day's form
Falcons 6% · Cowboys 94% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2021 games · Falcons · Cowboys

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